尿素早评：供应仍有压力，转机在于出口-20250708

Group 1: Report Overview - The investment rating for the urea industry is not explicitly stated in the report [1] - The core view is that urea prices in July are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on, but the subsequent turnaround still depends on exports [1] Group 2: Futures Price - UR01 closed at 1712, up 10 or 0.59% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1716, up 7 or 0.41%; UR09 closed at 1748, up 13 or 0.75% [1] Group 3: Spot Price - Domestic spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu showed different changes. Shandong rose by 10 to 1820, Henan remained unchanged at 1810, Hebei decreased by 10 to 1780, Northeast remained unchanged at 1880, and Jiangsu rose by 20 to 1840 [1] Group 4: Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 104, up 3 from the previous day; the spread of 01 - 05 was - 4, up 3 [1] Group 5: Upstream Cost - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 and 820 respectively [1] Group 6: Downstream Price - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Group 7: Trading Strategy - Urea supply pressure is still large with high daily production. Last week, enterprise inventory decreased slightly due to increased port - bound volume, but upstream enterprise inventory is still around 880,000 tons. July's top - dressing demand supports prices, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. So, it is believed that urea prices in July are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on, with the subsequent turnaround depending on exports [1]