碳酸锂日评：国内碳酸锂7月供给预期偏松，国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加-20250708

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month - on - month. Due to national policy - guided capacity clearance and expected expansion of the automotive scale, the prices of domestic lithium carbonate production and imports have risen, but the supply - demand situation remains complex. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - Prices: On July 7, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 63,600 yuan/ton, 63,920 yuan/ton, 63,520 yuan/ton, and 63,520 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the active contract was 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract was 213,304 lots, a decrease of 134,425 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 322,534 lots, a decrease of 2,754 lots from the previous day [1] - Inventory and Spreads: The inventory of the near - month to consecutive - one contracts was 15,555 tons, a decrease of 5,481 tons from the previous day; the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 1,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Lithium Spot Prices - Lithium Ore: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 654 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton from the previous day. The average prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained mostly unchanged [1] - Lithium Compounds: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,600 yuan/ton [1] - Other Lithium - Related Products: The prices of products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and negative electrode materials showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1] Company News - Yuntu Holdings: On July 7, 2025, Yuntu Holdings announced that it owns three phosphate mines in Leibo County, Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province. The Ajuluogang phosphate mine's 2.9 - million - ton annual mining and beneficiation project started construction in March and is under accelerated construction; the Niuniuzhai East phosphate mine's 4 - million - ton annual mining project is optimizing the mining and beneficiation plan design; the Niuniuzhai West phosphate mine is promoting the "exploration - to - mining" procedures. After production, it will meet the local yellow phosphorus production needs and transport products to production bases in Hubei and Guangxi via waterways [2] - Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium: Ganfeng Lithium's project has been officially put into production. Tianqi Lithium's 50,700 - ton wet - brine project in Shijian, Jianglin City may be put into production in October 2020, and the total output will reach 201,000 tons per year [3] - Other Companies: Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 10,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate drying project may be put into production in January 2022; Zijin Hengyuan's 25,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity may be completed and put into production on January 9, 2021. Some companies' production lines are under maintenance or upgrading, and some projects are in the process of construction or commissioning [3] Production and Supply - Lithium Carbonate: The production of lithium carbonate in China in July may increase month - on - month, and the supply is expected to be loose. The inventories of smelters, traders, and downstream enterprises have increased compared with the previous week [1][3] - Lithium Hydroxide: The production of lithium hydroxide in China in October may decrease month - on - month. The inventories of smelters and downstream enterprises in July may increase month - on - month, and the monthly export volume may decrease month - on - month [3][4] - Phosphoric Acid and Related Products: The production of phosphoric acid in China has decreased compared with the previous week. The production of lithium iron phosphate in China may increase month - on - month, and the production and export volume of some related products may also increase [3][4] Investment Strategy - Due to the complex supply - demand situation of domestic lithium carbonate, it is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [4]