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欧佩克宣布8月增产,发电终端燃料油需求或同比下滑
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-08 09:01

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has returned to the fundamental - driven logic, and the volatility of the fuel oil market has decreased significantly. Both high - sulfur (FU) and low - sulfur (LU) fuel oil are in a narrow - range oscillation state [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from power generation terminals may decline year - on - year due to OPEC's production increase. However, after the market structure adjustment, it will gain new support [2]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term supply pressure is limited, but in the medium term, the market share will be gradually replaced by the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry. The market lacks a continuous upward - driving force [3]. - The current market driving force of low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of high - sulfur fuel oil, and the structural contradiction still exists. The high - low sulfur price difference does not have the space for a significant increase for the time being [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.01% at 2,987 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.47% at 3,619 yuan/ton [1]. - With the easing of the Middle - East situation, the oil premium caused by geopolitical conflicts has rapidly declined, driving down the energy sector. The market is now fundamentally driven, and the volatility has decreased [1]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - The spread structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has weakened recently, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads declining, indicating sufficient supply and lack of positive drivers [2]. - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, accelerating from 414,000 barrels per day from May to July. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in power generation terminals may decline year - on - year [2]. - The crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil may need further adjustment to attract incremental demand. The increase in the consumption tax deduction ratio of some domestic refineries is beneficial to the recovery of high - sulfur fuel oil import demand [2]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - In the short term, the supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the market structure is relatively strong. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region is low, and domestic production is at a low level. The significant increase in bunker sales in May in Singapore, Zhoushan, and Shanghai supports the market [3]. - In the medium term, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil. After the end of the domestic refinery maintenance season, domestic production is expected to increase [3]. Strategies - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [4]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [4]. - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [4]. - Cross - period: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [4]. - Spot - futures: None [4]. - Options: None [4].