东证化工套利观察

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical industry as a whole fluctuated significantly in June, following the sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices. The inventory, valuation, production, and apparent demand of chemical products showed mixed trends. There are potential arbitrage opportunities in several cross - variety combinations [2][10][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Chemical Sector Market Trend Analysis - Energy Price Fluctuations: In June, affected by the Israel - Iran conflict, international crude oil prices fluctuated violently, rising from $65 per barrel to nearly $80 per barrel and then dropping to $67 per barrel. The domestic thermal coal price stabilized after a continuous decline [2][10]. - Inventory Situation: In June, chemical inventory showed mixed changes. PTA, caustic soda, PVC, staple fiber, and EG had obvious destocking, while bottle chips and urea had relatively obvious inventory accumulation [2][15]. - Valuation Changes: In June, the valuation of the chemical industry changed little. EB and PX had relatively obvious valuation expansion, mainly benefiting from the sharp fluctuations in crude oil [2][15]. - Production Volume: In June, the chemical production volume showed mixed changes month - on - month. PX and EB were worthy of attention. Their production volume continued to expand due to profit repair. However, the space for further growth of PX production volume is limited, while EB is expected to continue growing [15]. - Apparent Demand: In the first five months, the apparent demand of most chemical products showed a differentiated trend. The apparent demand of glass, soda ash, and PVC had relatively obvious negative growth, while that of EB, MEG, urea, and PE showed a significant growth trend [2][15]. 3.2 Chemical Cross - Variety Arbitrage Concerns - Glass - Soda Ash 09 Arbitrage: Photovoltaic glass production cuts are underway, which will put pressure on the subsequent demand for soda ash. Glass, with obviously reduced supply and a continuously high basis, may be relatively resistant to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on glass and short on soda ash [3][41]. - Bottle Chips - PTA - Ethylene Glycol Cross - Variety Arbitrage: The self - disciplined production cuts in the bottle chip industry are underway. Since it is unsustainable for the long - term processing fee to be lower than the enterprise's cash flow, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee at low prices [3][26]. - PX - BZ Cross - Variety Arbitrage: Under high imports, the supply and demand of pure benzene are barely balanced, but PX is expected to continue significant destocking in the second half of the year. If PXN continues to strengthen, it may lead to a passive increase in pure benzene production, thus putting pressure on pure benzene. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on PX and short on BZ [3][32][34].