集运日报：SCFIS欧线持续上涨，特朗普加征多国关税，空单已建议全部止盈，建议轻仓参与或观望。-20250708

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SCFIS on the European route continues to rise, while Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries increase the difficulty of short - term market gaming. It is recommended to close all short positions and either participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4]. - The market is filled with a mix of long and short information, and the game is intense. The market is in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% [3]. - On July 4, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [3]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% [3]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [3]. 3.2 Market Situation and Policy Impact - Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, further hit re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with small price increases to test the market, and the futures market has a slight rebound [4]. - The cease - fire agreement in Gaza has not been reached, the spot freight rate has temporarily stabilized, SCFIS continues to rise, and the market is filled with a mix of long and short information, with intense gaming and a weak and volatile futures market [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term futures market may mainly rebound. Short positions have been recommended to be closed. Risk - takers have been recommended to lightly test long positions below 1300 on the 2510 contract, with stop - loss and take - profit levels set [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [5]. 3.4 Contract - related Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [5]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [5].