Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-08 09:12Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic lithium carbonate production and inventory are at high levels with a loose supply - demand outlook, but due to national policies guiding capacity clearance and expectations of automobile consumption stimulus, the prices of domestic and imported lithium concentrates have risen, suggesting that lithium carbonate prices may still have room to rise. It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract with a light position in the short - term, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [3]. - The basis of lithium carbonate is positive and generally within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is positive and also within a reasonable range. This is due to the continuation of domestic new - energy vehicle consumption stimulus policies. However, the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand outlook remains loose, so investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side Lithium Concentrate - Ganfeng Lithium's Mali Goulamina lithium spodumene project phase I with an annual capacity of 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate was officially put into production in July, and Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium mine's 520,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, increasing the total capacity to 2.14 million tons per year. However, the daily prices of domestic and imported lithium ores have increased [9]. - Domestic lithium concentrate production in July may decrease month - on - month, while imports may increase [2][10][12]. Lithium Carbonate - The capacity utilization rate and production of domestic lithium carbonate have decreased compared to last week. However, with the possible commissioning of Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 6,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate capacity in July 2025 and Zijin Liyuan's 25,000 - ton capacity for preparing battery - grade lithium carbonate from crude carbon by December 2025, the production of domestic lithium carbonate (industrial and battery - grade) in July may increase month - on - month, and the supply outlook is loose [26]. - The import window is closed, and the import volume of Chinese lithium carbonate in July may decrease month - on - month [33]. - The daily cash production costs of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica concentrates are about 61,700 and 66,500 yuan/ton respectively, resulting in negative production profits. The quarterly production profits of producing lithium carbonate from integrated lithium spodumene/mica/salt - lake sources are positive [18][22]. Lithium Hydroxide - The daily cash production costs of Chinese smelting (causticizing) method lithium hydroxide are 56,900 (64,600) yuan/ton, with positive (negative) production profits. The monthly processing fee from coarse - grained to fine - grained lithium hydroxide has decreased [37][38]. - Yahua Group plans to build a 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line by the end of 2025, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production of Chinese lithium hydroxide (smelting and causticizing methods) in July. The inventory of Chinese lithium hydroxide (smelters and downstream) in July may increase month - on - month [42][51]. - The daily export profit of Chinese lithium hydroxide is negative, so the export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide in July may decrease month - on - month [47]. Demand Side - The production volume of Chinese lithium iron phosphate (lithium manganese iron phosphate) in July may increase month - on - month [59]. - The production (import) volume of Chinese nickel sulfate in July may increase month - on - month [60]. - The production volume of Chinese lithium cobalt oxide in July may increase month - on - month [64]. - The production volume of Chinese lithium manganate in July may increase month - on - month [74]. - The monthly processing fee of Chinese ternary precursors has decreased month - on - month. The monthly production cost of producing ternary precursors from purchased raw materials is 79,450 yuan/ton, with negative production profits. The production volume of Chinese ternary precursors in July may increase month - on - month [80][82]. - The monthly processing fee of Chinese ternary materials has decreased month - on - month. The monthly average production cost of polycrystalline consumer - grade 5 - series ternary materials is 107,600 yuan/ton, with negative production profits. The inventory of Chinese ternary material factories has increased compared to last week, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production of Chinese ternary materials in July [91][94]. - The production (shipment and inventory) volume of Chinese energy - storage cells in July may decrease (decrease, increase) month - on - month; the production (shipment and inventory) volume of Chinese power cells in July may increase (increase, increase) month - on - month [3]. Investment Strategy - Short - term investors are advised to go long on the main contract with a light position at low prices, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [3]. - Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6].