中辉期货热卷早报-20250708

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Steel products will fluctuate within a range due to the interweaving of bullish and bearish factors [3] - Iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and investors should sell short at high prices [7] - Coke supply - demand contradictions are limited, and it will oscillate within a range [10] - Coking coal will return to an oscillating state as coal mines resume production [14] - Ferroalloys' market sentiment is cooling, and prices will operate within a range [18] Summary by Variety Steel Products 1. Variety View - For rebar, recent de - capacity and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment, with improved expectations. Currently, hot metal production remains high, rebar production continues to rise, and overall steel export demand is still good [1][4] - For hot - rolled coils, the final anti - dumping duty ruling by Vietnam on Chinese hot - rolled coil exports has been announced. Domestic hot - rolled coil production has slightly increased, apparent demand has slightly decreased month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [1][4] 2. Trading Suggestions - Rebar demand in China has entered the off - season, and the long - term weak state has not changed. The market may operate within a range under the background of basis repair, with the range being [3040, 3080] [1][5] - The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are generally balanced, and the fundamentals have changed little. The previous upward movement was mainly driven by improved market sentiment. In the short term, it may enter a range - bound operation, with the range being [3060, 3200] [1][5] 3. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices, spot prices, basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils are provided, along with their latest values and price changes [2] Iron Ore 1. Variety View - From a fundamental perspective, on the demand side, hot metal production has declined, and it is expected to decline slowly in the future. On the supply side, the shipping volume rush has ended, but arrivals are still increasing. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are replenishing inventory as needed. The overall supply - demand structure has weakened month - on - month [8] 2. Trading Suggestions - In the short term, participate in the market within the range [715, 740], and in the medium term, arrange short positions [1][9] 3. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices, spot prices, spreads/price ratios, basis, freight rates, and spot indexes of iron ore are provided, along with their latest values and price changes [6] Coke 1. Variety View - The output of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the output of steel mills and coking enterprises remains high. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Hot metal production has increased month - on - month, ensuring the demand for raw materials. The supply - demand situation has changed little. In the short term, market sentiment has improved, but there is resistance from the moving average above, and it may return to an oscillating state [12] 2. Trading Suggestions - The market will oscillate, with the range being [1400, 1430] [1][13] 3. Price and Data - Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly data of coke are provided, including capacity utilization, production, inventory, and profit [11] Coking Coal 1. Variety View - Domestic coking coal production has slightly decreased, but some previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase in the future. The absolute level of upstream inventory is still high, spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. Attention should be paid to the resistance of the 60 - day moving average above [16] 2. Trading Suggestions - The market will oscillate, with the range being [820, 850] [1][17] 3. Price and Data - Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly data of coking coal are provided, including the start - up rate, production, inventory, and inventory availability days [15] Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) 1. Variety View - For manganese silicon, last week, both supply and demand in the fundamentals increased, but the overall inventory pressure is still obvious, and the bottom support of the ore price on the cost side is strong. Although hot metal production is still at a high level, actual demand may decline under pressure as the off - season approaches [19] - For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals show an increase in both supply and demand, and the cost side currently provides weak support for prices. As the coal consumption peak season arrives from July to August, prices are expected to pick up due to cost factors. However, the current factory inventory level is still relatively high, some factories still have plans to resume production, and the off - season of downstream consumption has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory inventory reduction [19] 2. Trading Suggestions - The market sentiment of manganese silicon is gradually cooling down, and it will continue to be under pressure before the fundamentals are significantly improved, with the range being [5550 - 5750] [1][20] - The market sentiment of ferrosilicon is gradually cooling down, and the real - world pressure will still limit the height of the rebound. It is expected that the market will operate within a range, with the range being [5270 - 5460] [1][20] 3. Price and Data - Futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, and weekly data of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are provided, including enterprise start - up rates, production, and inventory [18]