关注新关税对上游价格影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the impact of new tariffs on the upstream of the industry. The US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, which may range from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70%, and are expected to take effect on August 1st. Additionally, high - temperature weather in China has led to a rapid increase in electricity load [1]. - In the service industry, focus on the advancement of cross - border payment new policies. The People's Bank of China is soliciting opinions on the "Business Rules of the RMB Cross - Border Payment System (Draft for Comment)" [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Meso - level Event Overview 3.1.1. Production Industry - The US government will set new unilateral tariff rates, with letters to trading partners starting to be sent on July 4th, expected to be all delivered by the 9th, and the new tariffs likely to take effect on August 1st [1]. - High - temperature weather in China has driven up electricity load. On July 4th, the national maximum power load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts, an increase of about 200 million kilowatts compared to the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts compared to the same period last year. The load of the East China Power Grid reached 422 million kilowatts, with air - conditioning load accounting for about 37%. The power grid loads of several provincial - level regions have hit new highs 9 times since summer [1]. 3.1.2. Service Industry - The People's Bank of China is soliciting opinions on the "Business Rules of the RMB Cross - Border Payment System (Draft for Comment)" to adjust relevant content and adapt to the development and function upgrade of CIPS [2]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - Energy: International oil prices are fluctuating [3]. - Chemical: The price of soda ash has dropped by more than 5% [3]. 3.2.2. Mid - stream - Chemical: The decline in the operating rates of urea and PX has slowed down [4]. 3.2.3. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined [5]. - Service: The number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [5]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spread of the electronics industry has recently rebounded [6]. 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of various industries show different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry has decreased from 57.07 last week to 52.71 this week; the electronics industry has decreased from 54.07 to 52.37 [50]. 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Different industries' price indices have different changes. For example, the spot price of soda ash has decreased by 5.47% to 1252.5 yuan/ton; the spot price of WTI crude oil has increased by 2.26% to 67.0 US dollars/barrel [51].