FICC日报：关税大限将至，特朗普启动关税信函发送-20250708

Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting will be held in July. In May, domestic data was mixed, with investment data weakening, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, and only consumption showed resilience. China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in June, but the foundation for economic stabilization needs to be consolidated. The central bank increased its gold holdings for the 8th consecutive month in June, and foreign exchange reserves increased steadily. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further policies to stabilize growth at the July Politburo meeting. Trump will send tariff letters on July 7 (ET), with new tariffs ranging from 10% - 70%, and the "tariffs effective on August 1" may imply a delay in the negotiation deadline [2]. Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great" tax and spending bill, which may increase the US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, marking a shift from "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" to an "easy - to - loosen, hard - to - tighten" policy stage. The domestic Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting reignited market inflation trading. However, overseas, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and the Treasury's bond issuance will absorb market liquidity. In China, more detailed industry production - cut policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading, otherwise, the de - stocking cycle with weak demand will cause fluctuations [3]. Commodity Sectors - The black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the domestic supply - side. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists, and the energy market has a short - term end of geopolitical premium and a mid - term supply - abundant outlook. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, accelerating its strategy to regain market share. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations, and on July 7, spot gold fell by about $10, with an intraday decline of 1.15% [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be allocated on dips [5]. Key News - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3174 trillion at the end of June, an increase of $32.2 billion from May, with an increase rate of 0.98%. Trump will send tariff letters and agreements on July 7 (ET), and the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on August 1 for countries without agreements. The Kremlin is aware of Trump's remarks about imposing additional tariffs on BRICS countries [2][6].