新能源及有色金属日报：进口压力有所显现，升贴水仍面临下行风险-20250708

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [8] Core Viewpoints - The current TC price remains extremely low, and the demand outlook is not very optimistic. However, based on the announced data, the terminal performance is acceptable. Coupled with the continuous flow of inventory from the Shanghai and London markets to the New York market, the low inventory makes the nearby contracts vulnerable to squeeze risks. Therefore, it is expected that the price will be more likely to rise than fall in the future, and the operation should still be mainly based on buying hedges on dips [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,810 yuan/ton and closed at 79,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The night session of the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,370 yuan/ton and closed at 79,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% from the afternoon close of the previous day [1] Spot Situation - The spot market of electrolytic copper showed a weak consolidation pattern. The SMM1 electrolytic copper was quoted at 79,800 - 79,970 yuan/ton, and the premium range of the current contract narrowed to 50 - 140 yuan/ton, with an average price of 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day. Affected by the concentrated arrival of imports, the spot premium is expected to face downward pressure in the short term [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical Aspects: On May 20, major banks in China adjusted the RMB deposit interest rate table, with the current deposit rate下调 by 0.05 percentage points to 0.05%, and the listed interest rates of various term time deposits下调 by 0.15 - 0.25 percentage points [3] - Mine End: The Indonesian Minister of the Interior requested the Ministry of Mines to relax the export ban on copper concentrates of Amman Mineral International due to its impact on the local economy. Amman's copper smelter can produce 220,000 tons of cathode copper per year [4] - Smelting and Import: The global supply chain has been affected by China's rare earth export control, and Western metal smelters are in crisis. The rapid expansion of China's processing capacity is squeezing the profits of the entire metal industry, and many smelters are facing closure or operating pressure [4] - Consumption: In June 2025, the domestic copper tube production was 166,900 tons, a decrease of 25,200 tons from May, a decrease of 13.12%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 72.25%, a decrease of 10.91% from the previous month. It is expected that the copper tube production in July will continue to decline significantly [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The LME warehouse receipts changed by 950.00 tons to 97,400 tons compared with the previous trading day, the SHFE warehouse receipts changed by -625 tons to 21,682 tons, and the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper on July 7 was 142,900 tons, a change of 11,100 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, mainly based on buying hedges on dips [6] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [8] Table 1: Copper Price and Basis Data - Shows the price, premium, inventory, warehouse receipt, arbitrage, import profit, and Shanghai-London ratio data of copper on different dates [27][28][29]