PA联盟下半月价格沿用，关注马士基7月下半月第二周报价-20250708

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the freight rate for the 8 - month contract has likely appeared, and it is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies, especially whether the PA Alliance will adjust prices [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The uncertainty lies in the possible resumption of the Suez Canal [5]. - In December, the freight rate of the Far East - Europe route is usually higher than that in October. However, the risk is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation, which may challenge the seasonal pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - Online quotes of different alliances for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary by shipping company and shipping period. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's price for week 29 is 1785/2990; in the MSC + Premier Alliance, MSC's 7 - month upper - half - month shipping period quote is 2180/3640 [1]. II. Geopolitical Situation - The Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched a joint military operation on the 7th, using missiles and drones to attack important targets in Israel in response to the Israeli army's attacks on Yemeni ports and power stations [2]. III. Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining 4 weeks of July is 294,100 TEU, and the monthly average weekly shipping capacity in August is 305,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3]. IV. Contract Analysis - 8 - month contract: The freight rate is likely to peak and decline. The top of the freight rate has probably emerged, and the current market average price in the first half of July is around $3300/FEU. The settlement price of the 8 - month contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25 [4]. - 10 - month contract: It is an off - season contract mainly for short - allocation. The focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The uncertainty is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation before October [5]. - 12 - month contract: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. The risk is the possible resumption of the Suez Canal [7]. V. Shipping Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 8, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 80,726.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 30,740.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1323.90 and EC2508 at 1888.50 [7]. - On July 4, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $2101.00/TEU, and on July 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2258.04 points [7]. VI. Container Ship Delivery - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 6, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 11.12 million TEU [8]. VII. Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates. - Arbitrage: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short on the 10 - month contract [9].