新能源及有色金属日报：下游采购积极性有限，铅价暂陷震荡格局-20250708

General Information - Report Date: 2025-07-08 [23][38] - Analysts: Wang Yuwu, Feng Fan, Shi Cheng, Chen Sijie [38][39] Investment Rating - Absolute Price: Cautiously Bullish [3] - Option Strategy: Sell Put [4] Core View - The lead price is temporarily in a volatile pattern due to limited downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The domestic mine supply is relatively tight, and the smelters' willingness to purchase high-silver mines is low. The energy storage battery sector performs prominently, and the industry is optimistic about the second half of the year. Other battery sectors also see a gradual increase in the operating rate [1][3]. Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On July 7, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.63/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -55 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate waste price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton. The waste white shell price remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton. The waste black shell price remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,315 yuan/ton, closed at 17,210 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 29,406 lots, an increase of 5,076 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 51,045 lots, a decrease of 627 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,315 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,155 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,180 yuan/ton, closed at 17,110 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the afternoon closing price [1]. Inventory - On July 7, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 259,975 tons, a decrease of 2,625 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy Absolute Price Strategy - It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [3]. Option Strategy - Sell put options [4]