有色金属周报（电解铜）：美“大漂亮”法案通过计划提升债务上限，特朗普宣布延期对等关税生效至8月1日-20250708

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Electrolytic Copper) - Date: July 8, 2025 - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates still exist, and there are disturbances in the production or transportation of many overseas copper mines. However, the Trump administration's tariff increases on many countries and the emergence of traditional consumption off - season characteristics in China have led to continuous accumulation of the global total inventory of electrolytic copper, which may cause adjustments in the price of Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract lightly at high prices in the short term [4]. - The positive basis and high - level monthly spread of Shanghai copper, as well as the positive spread of LME copper contracts, are due to the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs leading to export rush expectations and the continuous tight supply - demand expectation of global copper concentrates. But considering factors such as the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season in China, investors are advised to pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities for Shanghai copper monthly spreads and wait and see for LME copper arbitrage opportunities [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - economic Environment - The US Senate's "Great Beauty" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit expansion may exceed $3 trillion. Trump postponed the effective date of reciprocal tariffs and the negotiation deadline to August 1, and sent the first batch of tariff letters to 14 countries with tax rates ranging from 25% to 40%. The US ADP employment number in June was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with the expected interest - rate cut time points being September/October/December [3]. Upstream Market - Copper Concentrate: The transportation of copper concentrates from Las Bambas and Constancia was interrupted due to road blockades by informal miners. Rio Tinto paid nearly $139 million to settle a class - action lawsuit. Some mines had production or transportation problems, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production (import) of domestic copper concentrates in July. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates was negative but increased compared with last week, and the world (China) port copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume decreased (increased, increased) compared with last week [3][23]. - Copper Smelting: Some overseas copper smelters stopped production, while some domestic smelters had new production capacity put into operation. The weekly processing fees of domestic northern (southern) crude copper decreased (increased) month - on - month, and the domestic smelter's crude - smelting maintenance capacity in July may decrease month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production (import) of domestic crude copper in July [3][29]. - Electrolytic Copper Production: Some domestic electrolytic copper production capacity was put into operation, while some overseas smelters had production reduction or suspension plans. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will increase month - on - month, and the import volume may also increase month - on - month [3][30]. Downstream Market - Copper Rod: Some refined copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July. The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined (recycled) copper rods decreased (decreased) compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises increased (increased) [4][34]. - Copper Wire and Cable: The capacity utilization rate, raw material, and finished - product inventory of copper wire and cable decreased compared with last week. Affected by factors such as the off - season, the capacity utilization rate in July may decrease month - on - month [47][50]. - Copper Enameled Wire: The monthly processing fee of copper enameled wire remained flat. Affected by the traditional consumption off - season, the order volume and capacity utilization rate decreased slightly compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate in July may decrease month - on - month [48][50]. - Copper Foil: The weekly processing fee of copper foil decreased slightly. The actual downstream order increment was mainly rigid demand, and the capacity utilization rate of lithium - ion and electronic - circuit copper foil in July may decrease month - on - month [52][54]. - Copper Plate and Strip: Affected by the traditional consumption off - season, the orders from consumer electronics and new - energy customers decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate in July may decrease month - on - month [54]. - Copper Tube and Brass Rod: Due to factors such as the expected decrease in the production of household air - conditioners in July, high inventory of air - conditioner manufacturers, high raw - material procurement costs, and a decline in new orders, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes and brass rods in July may decrease month - on - month [56]. Market Structure and Arbitrage Opportunities - Basis and Monthly Spread: The basis of Shanghai copper was positive and at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread was also positive and at a relatively high level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities for Shanghai copper monthly spreads [8]. - LME Copper Contract Spread: The (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper were positive and at relatively high levels. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was close to the 75% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended that investors wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [9]. - Cross - Market Spread: The spreads between COMEX copper and LME copper, and between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper were positive and at relatively high levels, which was due to concerns about the unexpected results of the Trump administration's Section 232 investigation on copper [11]. - Contract Price Structure: The closing prices of Shanghai copper's near - and far - month contracts showed a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper showed a Contango structure [13]. Inventory Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, bonded - area inventory, and LME copper inventory increased compared with last week. The COMEX copper inventory also increased due to the transportation of about 500,000 tons of copper to US ports by international traders. The copper concentrate inventory at Chinese ports increased compared with last week [16][18][21].