银河期货原油期货早报-20250708

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern and turn bearish in the medium term due to OPEC's expected production increase and potential supply surplus after the peak season [2]. - The asphalt market shows a weak trend in the short term due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and expected cost loosening, with short - term prices fluctuating narrowly and cracking spreads remaining high [3][4]. - The liquefied gas market is expected to have a weak price trend due to reduced supply, weak combustion and chemical demand, and inventory reduction [8][9]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see price increases due to increased LNG exports and strong demand, while the European market is expected to be weak due to strong supply, weak demand, and reduced cooling needs [9]. - The fuel oil market shows different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and stable demand [12][13]. - The PX market is expected to follow the cost side in the short term due to tight supply and increasing demand [14]. - The PTA market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term due to increased supply, decreased downstream demand, and expected inventory accumulation [16]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to increasing supply, expected inventory accumulation, and decreased downstream demand [18][19]. - The short - fiber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with strong support for processing fees due to production cuts and weak downstream demand [20]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the raw material side and fluctuate and consolidate in the short term due to production cuts and strong processing fee support [24]. - The styrene market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to increased supply, decreased demand, and increased inventory [26]. - The PVC market is expected to be under pressure in the second half of the year due to expected new production capacity, weak domestic demand, and limited export growth, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [29]. - The caustic soda market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term but face pressure from new production capacity in July - August, with attention to production and inventory changes [30]. - The plastic and PP markets are expected to be bearish in the short and medium term due to production capacity pressure, weak terminal demand, and a strategy of shorting on rallies [32]. - The glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention to production and sales, and in the medium term, to cost reduction and factory cold - repair [35]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a weak shock performance this week as the macro - logic may return to the industrial logic, with a bearish fundamental situation [38]. - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to increased supply, stable demand, and eased geopolitical conflicts [41]. - The urea market is expected to fluctuate due to high supply, weak demand, and uncertain export policies [42]. - The log market suggests waiting and seeing for the near - month contracts and paying attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [44][45]. - The double - offset paper market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices due to cost pressure relief [46][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets suggest holding short positions for the RU and NR main 09 contracts and holding the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 [50][51]. - The butadiene rubber market suggests short - selling the BR main 08 contract, waiting and seeing for the spread between BR2509 and NR2509, and selling the BR2509 call option [53][54]. - The pulp market suggests short - selling a small amount of the SP main 09 contract and holding the spread between 2*SP2509 and NR2509 [57]. Summaries by Directory Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 contract settled at $67.93, up $0.93 or 1.39% ; Brent2509 contract settled at $69.58, up $1.28 or 1.87% ; SC main contract 2508 fell to 501.3 yuan/barrel and then rose to 512 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - Related News: Trump postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date to August 1st and plans to raise tariffs significantly. OPEC+ may approve a production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September [1][2]. - Logic Analysis: OPEC's production increase expectation is strengthened, and the market may face a supply surplus after the peak season. However, the short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and oil prices are expected to remain stable in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term [2]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a range - bound trading idea in the short term and be bearish in the medium term for single - side trading; keep an eye on the stabilization of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads for arbitrage; and wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3594 points (+0.90%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3396 points (+0.80%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [3]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong decreased, while that in the Yangtze River Delta increased, and that in South China remained stable [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: Supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and cost is expected to loosen. The short - term price will fluctuate narrowly, and the cracking spread will remain high [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: the asphalt - oil spread rebounds as oil prices weaken in the short term; options: wait and see [4][6]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2508 closed at 4193 (+0.34%) at night, and PG2509 closed at 4088 (+0.25%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [6]. - Related News: The market in South China is stable with weak demand; the market in Shandong has different trends for civil gas and ether - post carbon four; the market in East China is generally stable with some weakness [6][7]. - Logic Analysis: Supply decreases, demand in both combustion and chemical fields weakens, and inventories are reduced. The price is expected to be weak [8][9]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 33.621 (+0.45%), HH closed at 3.401 (+0.09%), and JKM closed at 12.44 (+1.47%) [9]. - Logic Analysis: US natural gas production decreases, demand is strong, and LNG exports increase, so prices are expected to rise. European natural gas prices are weak due to strong supply, weak demand, and reduced cooling needs [9]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: go long on HH at low prices and expect TTF to fluctuate [9][10]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 contract closed at 2971 (+1.05%) at night, and LU09 closed at 3670 (+1.89%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads remain stable [10]. - Related News: Indonesia bids to sell fuel oil, and India's fuel consumption decreases in June [10][12]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has demand support from seasonal power generation and procurement in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and stable demand [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: wait and see; arbitrage: pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot and consider going long on the FU91 positive spread at low prices [12][13]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6684 (+0.18%) during the day and 6706 (+0.33%) at night. Spot prices rebounded slightly [14]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [14]. - Logic Analysis: PX inventory is low, supply is tight, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected to follow the cost side in the short term [14]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [14][15]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4710 (+0.00%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [15]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and a PTA device resumes normal operation [15][16]. - Logic Analysis: Supply increases, downstream demand decreases, and inventory accumulation is expected. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [16]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][15]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4279 (+0.05%) during the day and 4279 (+0.00%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [16]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and port inventory increases [16][17]. - Logic Analysis: Supply increases, downstream demand decreases, and inventory accumulation is expected in August - September. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [18][19]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [19][20]. Short - Fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract closed at 6518 (+0.06%) during the day and 6526 (+0.12%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [20]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [20]. - Logic Analysis: Some factories cut production, processing margins expand, and downstream demand is weak. Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: short PTA and long PF; options: wait and see [20][22]. Bottle - Chip - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5872 (+0.03%) during the day and 5874 (+0.03%) at night. Spot market trading is light [23]. - Related News: Some bottle - chip factories plan to cut production [23][24]. - Logic Analysis: Processing fees are strong due to production cuts. The price is expected to follow the raw material side and fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [24]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [24]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2508 main contract closed at 7337 (-0.04%) during the day and 7382 (+0.61%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [24][25]. - Related News: Port inventories of styrene and pure benzene increase [26]. - Logic Analysis: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventories rise. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [26]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [26][27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC spot prices decrease slightly, and caustic soda spot prices increase in some areas [27]. - Related News: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreases, and the purchase price of caustic soda by some alumina factories increases [28][29]. - Logic Analysis: PVC faces over - supply in the second half of the year and is under price pressure; caustic soda may fluctuate strongly in the short term but faces pressure from new production capacity in July - August [29][30]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: caustic soda fluctuates strongly in the short term; PVC is bearish and suggests short - selling on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [30][31]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: LLDPE prices in some regions decrease, and PP prices in different regions also show declines [32]. - Related News: The PE maintenance ratio decreases, and the PP maintenance ratio increases [32]. - Logic Analysis: There is production capacity pressure in the third quarter, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [32]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: bearish in the short and medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [32][33]. Glass - Market Review: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton (-0.68%) and remained unchanged at night. Spot prices vary by region [34]. - Related News: Soda ash inventory increases, LOW - E glass sample enterprise开工率 decreases, and the glass market has different trends in different regions [35]. - Logic Analysis: The price is difficult to rise continuously due to cost reduction and weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and pay attention to cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium term [35]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly as the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [35][36]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1168 yuan/ton (-0.5%) and rose to 1172 yuan at night. Spot prices vary by region [37]. - Related News: Soda ash inventory increases, production and开工率 increase, and downstream demand is general [38]. - Logic Analysis: The price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. It is expected to show a weak shock performance this week as the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [38]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly this week; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [38][39]. Methanol - Market Review: The methanol futures closed at 2386 (-0.29%). Spot prices vary by region [40]. - Related News: International methanol production increases [40]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is abundant, demand is stable, and geopolitical conflicts ease. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [41]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [41]. Urea - Market Review: The urea futures closed at 1748 (-0.34%). Spot prices rise slightly [42]. - Related News: Urea daily production increases, and production enterprise inventory decreases but remains high [42]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is high, demand is weak, and export policies are uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate [42]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options on rebounds [42][43]. Log - Related News: Log spot prices are stable, and the number of incoming ships of New Zealand logs decreases [44]. - Logic Analysis: Downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need further consideration. The difference between standard and market scales supports the current price [44][45]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: wait and see for near - month contracts; arbitrage: pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options: wait and see [44][45]. Double - Offset Paper - Related News: The double - offset paper market is stable, with paper mills stabilizing prices and social demand in the off - season [46]. - Logic Analysis: Supply and demand are both weak, but the supply - demand relationship is partially alleviated by autumn publication orders. Paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices due to cost pressure relief [46][48]. - Trading Strategy: No specific trading strategy provided. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract closed at 13950 (-0.14%), NR main 09 contract closed at 11990 (-0.33%) [48][49]. - Related News: Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase [49]. - Logic Analysis: The El Niño index has a negative impact on RU, and inventory has different trends in different areas [50][51]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: hold short positions for RU and NR main 09 contracts; arbitrage: hold the spread