新能源及有色金属日报：政策及资金扰动持续，多晶硅盘面继续反弹-20250708

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows an oscillating trend. After major manufacturers cut production, the supply - side pressure decreases, the southwest region's operation rate is lower than in previous years, and the consumption side increases. The subsequent focus should be on the operation status of major manufacturers and policy disturbances [2]. - Recently, polysilicon enterprises have actively raised spot quotes in response to the national anti - involution policy. Currently, there are few actual transactions, and terminal installation is expected to decline significantly. The futures market has continuously risen due to policy and capital sentiment. Future attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and price transmission [6]. Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 7, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillating trend. The main contract 2509 opened at 7980 yuan/ton and closed at 8045 yuan/ton, a change of 55 yuan/ton (0.69%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the position of the 2509 main contract was 384,707 lots, and on July 8, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 51,349 lots, a change of - 352 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8200 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming and Sichuan decreased, while those in Huangpu Port, Tianjin, the Northwest, Shanghai, and Xinjiang remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic organic silicon DMC production increased by 13.75% month - on - month and decreased by 1.60% year - on - year. In July, although the operation rate of some domestic monomer enterprises decreased, the overall impact was limited, and the estimated organic silicon production in July increased by 1.53% month - on - month [1]. Polysilicon - On July 7, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures maintained an oscillating pattern, opening at 35100 yuan/ton and closing at 36515 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 2.86% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 105,230 lots (77,334 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on that day was 440,264 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quoted price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 36.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 27.20 (a month - on - month change of 0.74%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.22GW (a month - on - month change of - 4.43%), the weekly polysilicon production was 24,000.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 1.69%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.90GW (a month - on - month change of - 11.46%) [3]. Silicon Wafers - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.87 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.19 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 0.99 yuan/piece. Affected by the policy orientation of the polysilicon end, the downstream silicon wafer market had a turning point, and the market trading atmosphere heated up, with stronger trading desire. However, enterprises remained cautious about the subsequent trend of the silicon wafer market [5]. Battery Cells - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.23 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. Components - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5]. Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [2]. - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - If the futures price corrects and the polysilicon price is smoothly transmitted downstream to silicon wafers and components, long positions can be laid out at low prices [6]. - Unilateral: None [8] - Inter - period: None [8] - Cross - variety: None [8] - Spot - futures: None [8] - Options: None [8] Group 5: Factors to Monitor - Resumption and new capacity commissioning in the Northwest and Southwest regions [4] - Changes in the operation rate of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment [4] - Operation status of organic silicon enterprises [4]