红枣专题：红枣行情分析

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new - season jujube production in 2025 is likely to decrease. However, since 2024 was a year of high - yield, if the reduction in new - season production is small, the upward price space is limited under the current high inventory situation. If both the first - crop and second - crop flower setting have significant problems, it may cause a price increase, but the large amount of old - season inventory restricts the upward space as long as the price difference can cover the cost of delivering old - season jujubes for new - season warehouse receipts. The second - crop flower setting situation will be a market focus in the future, and a large expected reduction in new - season production will support the purchase price of new - season bulk jujubes [6][39]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Background Introduction - There is a divergence in the market regarding the future trend of jujube prices. One view is that the possible significant reduction in production this year due to it being a small - production year, poor first - crop flower setting, and potential problems with the second - crop flowers may lead to price increases. The other view is that the high old - season inventory and the new rule allowing old - season jujubes to be used for new - season delivery will likely cause the futures price to decline. The production of jujubes this year is still uncertain, as the southern Xinjiang region has experienced high - temperature weather, and the yield of the second - crop flowers is in question, while the high old - season inventory is a fact [5]. 3.1.2 Analysis Conclusion - Similar to the core view, the new - season jujube production in 2025 is likely to decrease, and the price trend is affected by the degree of production reduction and the old - season inventory, with the second - crop flower setting being a key factor [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Analysis 3.2.1 New - Season Crops - Growth Performance Decline: Due to the decline in jujube prices and farmers' profits in recent years, the jujube planting area in China has been decreasing year by year. In 2024, the planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a 2% year - on - year decrease, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in 2025. In 2024, the jujube production was 6.069 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 110.6% due to favorable weather. The production in Xinjiang, the main producing area, shows a "big - small year" pattern, and since 2024 was a big - production year, 2025 is likely to be a small - production year [10][11]. - Impact of Weather on Jujube Production: The first - crop flowers account for 10% - 30% of the fruit - setting, with the best quality; the second - crop flowers are the main part, accounting for 40% - 70%, with balanced yield and quality; the third - crop flowers account for about 20%, with low yield and poor quality. High - temperature weather during the second - crop flower period may affect fruit - setting. This year, the first - crop flowers in southern Xinjiang were affected by sandstorms, and the fruit - setting was poor. The impact of high - temperature on the second - crop flowers is yet to be determined, and the next week or so is the critical period for determining the jujube production [14]. 3.2.2 Inventory - The physical inventory of jujubes is relatively high, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. As of the latest week, the physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 10,520 tons, a 78.3% year - on - year increase, and the inventory decline was not obvious recently. As of July 4, the total number of generated futures warehouse receipts and valid forecast warehouse receipts was 10,191, equivalent to nearly 51,000 tons of jujubes. The warehouse receipt volume has increased against the trend this year due to the increase in jujube prices and delivery enthusiasm [26]. 3.2.3 Delivery Issues - The current market price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou is 8,700 yuan/ton, while the prices of the December, January, and March contracts are above 10,000 yuan/ton. Although the logic of taking delivery of the September contract and selling it in the new - season contracts is feasible, there are many uncertainties in actual operation. The new rule allows old - season jujubes to be used for new - season delivery for the 2512 and subsequent contracts, but there are problems such as the requirement of labeling the production year on the inner packaging and the holding cost (about 130 yuan/ton per month) [30][34]. 3.2.4 Relatively Weak Demand - Jujubes are non - essential consumer goods, and their demand is affected by the economic situation. In 2024, the consumption of jujubes was poor due to the weak domestic consumption. In 2025, the demand is still not optimistic as the domestic economy is under pressure. As of July 4, the number of jujube trucks arriving at Guangdong Ruyifang was 596, a 4% year - on - year increase, but significantly lower than in 2023 and 2022. Summer is the off - season for jujube consumption, and the trading atmosphere is currently dull [36][37]. 3.2.5 Summary - Similar to the core view and the analysis conclusion in the preface, the new - season jujube production in 2025 is likely to decrease, and the price trend is affected by the degree of production reduction and the old - season inventory, with the second - crop flower setting being a key factor [39].