关税冲击下亚洲面临地缘经济再平衡，主权信用风险呈分化趋势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the sovereign credit environment in Asia has shown a structural differentiation trend, affected by multiple factors such as the spill - over effect of global tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and internal growth momentum changes. The differences in policy responses, industrial structures, and external dependence among Asian countries have led to a continuous divergence in sovereign credit trends [6]. - In East Asia, the credit foundation is relatively solid, but external demand weakness and structural fiscal pressures are emerging, and the overall regional risk is rising. In Southeast Asia, there are opportunities for diversified development, but credit risks show a differentiated trend. In South Asia, the foundation is relatively weak, and the pressure of sovereign credit differentiation is increasing [6]. 3. Summary by Directory East Asia - China: Although the tariff war may be an important variable affecting China's economy in the short term, the rapid development of new drivers and increased policy efforts can help mitigate risks. With sufficient government fiscal space, abundant foreign exchange reserves, and a large net international investment position, China's sovereign credit risk outlook is stable. Under different scenarios of US tariff cancellation, the impact on China's exports and GDP varies. The tariff war may also promote China's R & D investment, industrial upgrading, and regional cooperation [7]. - Japan: Tariff shocks weaken Japan's slow economic recovery, the Japan - US game increases the uncertainty of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes, and fiscal pressure intensifies, hindering Japan's fiscal consolidation. The sovereign credit risk outlook is negative. The US tariff policies have affected Japan's auto industry, exports, and domestic demand, and the IMF has lowered Japan's economic growth forecast. The Japan - US trade negotiation also adds to Japan's fiscal pressure [8][10][11]. - South Korea: Due to its high trade dependence on both China and the US, tariff policies will significantly impact South Korea's exports. With long - term political turmoil and "top - level" hollowing - out, there is high uncertainty in domestic demand recovery and policy implementation, and the sovereign credit risk outlook is negative. The IMF has lowered South Korea's economic growth forecast. The South Korean government has submitted a supplementary budget, which may increase the national debt and fiscal deficit rate, but the government debt risk is still controllable [16]. Southeast Asia - Overall situation: The regional centripetal force in Southeast Asia is increasing, and there are opportunities for diversified development under the great - power game. The deepening cooperation between China and ASEAN countries can mitigate external environment fluctuations and drive regional economic growth. However, some countries may face negative impacts from economic and geopolitical risk spillovers, and the sovereign credit risk shows a differentiated trend [20][21]. - Positive - potential countries: Malaysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia may have new development opportunities through regional economic and trade cooperation, which will boost their sovereign credit levels. For example, Malaysia's cooperation with China and Singapore can support its economy; Indonesia's large population and downstream integration strategy can drive economic growth; Cambodia's cooperation with China can enhance its geopolitical status and economic growth [22][23][24]. - Negative - potential countries: Thailand and the Philippines face downward pressure on sovereign credit. Thailand's economic structural problems and industrial upgrading lag may lead to a slowdown in economic growth under external shocks. The Philippines' geopolitical risks are rising due to its military cooperation with the US and internal political struggles, which will affect its economic and trade cooperation and fiscal policies [26]. South Asia - Overall situation: South Asia has experienced rapid economic growth, sufficient demographic dividends, and strong reform momentum, with deficit and debt burdens showing a high - level mitigation trend. However, the uncertainty of tariff policies may exacerbate the differentiation of credit risks among South Asian countries [2][28]. - India: India's strong economic growth, diversified economic structure, and strong external payment ability support its sovereign credit. The deepening cooperation with the US may mitigate tariff risks and enhance long - term economic growth potential. However, the India - Pakistan conflict may have a negative impact on India's sovereign credit [29]. - Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka: These countries are constrained by factors such as lagging industrial structure upgrading, high fiscal and debt pressures, and domestic and geopolitical conflicts. Tariff policies may significantly impact their pillar industries and increase social volatility risks. Global monetary policy fluctuations may also pose challenges to their economic recovery and debt repayment. Cooperation with China can help mitigate external risks [2][30].