新能源及有色金属日报：白宫再度呼吁干预鲍威尔的立场，降息概率再加大-20250708

Report Summary Market News and Important Data - Trump sent tariff letters to 14 countries on August 1, 2025, imposing 25% tariffs on imported goods from Japan and South Korea, and 25% - 40% tariffs on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, etc. An additional 10% tariff will be imposed on countries aligning with the anti - US policies of BRICS countries. The suspension period for reciprocal tariffs was extended to August 1 [1]. - White House officials stated that specific country tariffs and industry tariffs will not be stacked. The Fed Chair candidate Wash suggested lowering interest rates, and White House trade advisor Navarro called on the Fed Council to intervene in Powell's stance [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On July 7, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 775.38 yuan/gram, closed at 771.30 yuan/gram, down 0.74% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 190,256 lots, and the open interest was 175,760 lots. In the night session, it opened at 771.66 yuan/gram and closed at 775.68 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close [2]. - On July 7, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,919 yuan/kilogram, closed at 8,872 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 261,611 lots, and the open interest was 229,481 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,856 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,916 yuan/kilogram, down 0.19% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 7, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield closed at 4.35%, with a change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year yields had no available change data [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On July 7, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, the long position changed by 36 lots, and the short position changed by 13 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 265,734 lots, down 10.42% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2502 contract, the long position decreased by 112 lots, and the short position decreased by 387 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract was 676,826 lots, down 20.03% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the gold ETF position was 947.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,868.74 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 13.16 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 613.51 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 86.94, down 0.22% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 90.06, with a change of - 1.64% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On July 7, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 38,836 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 549,594 kilograms, up 32.24% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,392 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 25,800 kilograms [7]. Investment Suggestions - Gold: It is still recommended to buy on dips for hedging operations, considering Trump may face more obstacles after promoting the "big and beautiful" bill, and such a bill requires a relatively loose monetary policy [8]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver prices are slightly stronger than gold due to occasional rebounds in risk sentiment and the gold - silver ratio deviating from the central level for a long time. It is also recommended to buy on dips [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8]. - Options: Put on hold [8]