家电行业2025年中期投资策略：内外兼修，稳健行远

Core Insights - The household appliance industry experienced a decline of 1.2% in the Shenwan household appliance index from the beginning of 2025 until June 29, ranking 26th among Shenwan industries [4][13] - The overall performance of the household appliance industry in 2024 and Q1 2025 was good, but the index showed weakness compared to the strong performance in 2024 [4][6] - Factors contributing to the weak index performance include reduced demand elasticity from national subsidies, uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies, low real market demand, and a shift in market style towards new consumption trends [4][6][12] Outlook for H2 2025 - The implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies is expected to stimulate household appliance consumption, which remains a crucial part of domestic demand [6] - China, as the largest global manufacturer and exporter of household appliances, holds significant production capacities, with 81.3% for air conditioners, 57.6% for refrigerators, and 52% for washing machines in 2023 [6] - Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America may present important opportunities for growth, while global leading companies are expected to enhance industry concentration through their advantages in design, manufacturing, and supply chains [6][8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors that still have demand under normalized national subsidy policies, such as air conditioning and kitchen small appliances [8] - Pay attention to export-oriented companies targeting emerging markets or those with overseas production capabilities to mitigate U.S. exposure [8] - Consider companies that are diversifying into new industries such as electric vehicles and robotics [8] - Look for significantly undervalued high-dividend stocks, as a shift in funding styles or rising risk aversion may create favorable market conditions [8] H1 2025 Review - The household appliance index's performance was weak, with the appliance parts sector leading with a 16.3% increase, while the white goods sector saw a decline of 4.7% [15][19] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the household appliance industry is currently at 14.3X, ranking 28th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, indicating a relatively low valuation level [19][25] - The dividend yield for the household appliance industry stands at 3.7%, ranking 4th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, supported by strong cash flow [25][26] Sales and Production Trends - In the first five months of 2025, air conditioner domestic sales reached 54.236 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, while external sales were 49.25 million units, up 11.4% [31] - Refrigerator domestic sales for the first four months of 2025 were 14.414 million units, down 1.4% year-on-year, while external sales were 17.362 million units, up 9.2% [36] - Washing machine domestic sales for the first four months of 2025 were 14.925 million units, up 8.4% year-on-year, with external sales at 15.198 million units, also up 8.5% [41] - Television domestic sales for the first four months of 2025 were 11.62 million units, a slight increase of 0.2%, while external sales reached 32.35 million units, up 2% [46] Cost and Pricing Pressures - From January to July 2025, LME copper and aluminum prices increased by 4.4% and 7.1%, respectively, indicating ongoing cost pressures for appliance manufacturers [48] - The average exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to the Chinese yuan remained stable at 7.17, presenting a neutral impact on companies engaged in overseas business [54] - High shipping costs continue to compress profit margins for exports, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariff policies contributing to this pressure [58]