黑色产业数据每日监测-20250708

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term supply positive expectations lead to a rebound in futures prices, but it still has to face the reality of high production and difficult - to - improve demand, with no signs of a substantial reversal in the supply - demand pattern. The supply - demand structure of steel may continue to weaken this week, and there is a risk of a correction in the black industry after the anti - involution hype ends [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures are generally weak. The rebar closed at 3063 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton, down 0.06%; the iron ore main contract closed at 733 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke rose slightly [1] Market Analysis - Last week, the steel futures market broke through the narrow - range oscillation, with the price center rising nearly 100 points, mainly due to the increasing positive sentiment on the supply side. Firstly, the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition, which improved the sentiment of commodities with large previous declines and strong supply pressure. Secondly, about the rumor of "Tangshan's sintering machine production limit of 30% from July 4 - 15", about half of the steel mills received the notice, and most of the remaining ones said it was likely to happen. If the policy is implemented, the capacity utilization rate may drop to 70%, and the daily output of sinter may decrease by 30,000 tons. The terminal demand shows the characteristic of "off - season not off - season" in the short term, with the inventory of five major steel products decreasing slightly by 1,000 tons to 1.33993 million tons last week. However, affected by the high - temperature and rainy weather in July and August, it is the traditional off - season for steel demand. The social inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.06% month - on - month, but the steel mill inventory decreased by 2.24%. The steel mills are mainly focused on active sales, while the terminal consumption is not satisfactory [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1] Summary - The short - term supply positive expectations bring a rebound in futures prices, but it still has to face the reality of high production and difficult - to - improve demand, with no signs of a substantial reversal in the supply - demand pattern. The steel supply - demand structure may continue to weaken this week, and there is a risk of a correction in the black industry after the anti - involution hype ends [1] Brief Evaluation - Rebar: Investors are advised to take an oscillating approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]