豆粕生猪：美豆天气良好，连粕窄幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of US soybean futures closed lower due to favorable crop weather forecasts in the US and trade - policy uncertainties. The domestic continuous - contract M09 of soybean meal continued its weak trend, and the spot market was also under pressure. The short - term spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain under pressure [15][16][17]. - For live pigs, the short - term supply is tight, leading to a relatively strong price fluctuation. However, in the later period, if the slaughter rhythm recovers, the price increase will slow down, and factors such as the off - season of consumption and medium - term supply pressure will restrict the upside space of prices [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main DCE soybean meal 2509 contract declined by 0.07% to 2935 yuan/ton, and the quotes of coastal mainstream regional oil mills decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The main DCE live pig 2509 contract rose by 0.21% to 14275 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs decreased by 0.11 yuan/kg to 14.85 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract dropped by 2.62% to 1021 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be local to scattered showers in the US Midwest this week, with temperatures near or above normal. The current weather conditions generally support the growth of crops, but there are also wet and dry areas in the region [3][4]. 3.3 Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the week of July 27, 2025, the national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased by 18.91% week - on - week to 82.24 tons, and decreased by 24.04% year - on - year. - On July 8, the import cost of US soybeans remained unchanged, that of Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged, and that of Argentine soybeans decreased by 32 yuan. - On July 7, the national major oil mills' soybean meal sales volume increased by 2.11 tons to 8.45 tons, and the overall oil mill operating rate decreased by 2.15% to 64.01%. - As of July 4, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of coastal major oil mills decreased by 2.6 tons to 16.2 tons, the rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 1.14 tons to 10.01 tons, and the unexecuted contracts decreased by 0.5 tons to 12.6 tons. - As of July 7, 2025, the national imported soybean port inventory increased by 26.44 tons to 636.369 tons compared with June 30. - As of the week of July 3, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 389364 tons, an increase from the previous week. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66% as of July 6, in line with market expectations. - In June 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 1342 tons, the lowest in the same period in the past three years, and the daily average export volume decreased by 3.9% year - on - year. - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sales reached 69.8% of the expected output, and 2025/26 sales reached 16.4% of the expected output. - The US announced differential tariff adjustments for 14 trading partners, which will take effect on August 1 [5][6][7][15][16]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live pig prices, and their basis, as well as charts of Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][11][14][15]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - Soybean Meal: The decline in US soybean futures prices was due to favorable weather and trade - policy impacts. The domestic continuous - contract M09 of soybean meal continued to be weak, and the spot market was also under pressure. The short - term spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain under pressure [15][16][17]. - Live Pigs: The short - term supply is tight, causing prices to fluctuate strongly. In the later period, if the slaughter rhythm recovers, the price increase will slow down, and consumption off - season and medium - term supply pressure will restrict the upside space [18].