建材反内卷的三个路径

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" and maintained [6]. Core Insights - The report discusses three potential paths for addressing "involution" in the building materials sector: 1) Limiting capital expenditure; 2) Clearing existing production capacity; 3) Restricting current output [2][10]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On June 29, 2025, an article in the People's Daily highlighted the need to break away from "involution-style" competition to achieve high-quality development. It emphasized the importance of reforming the market allocation of factors and eliminating local protectionism and market segmentation [4]. Event Commentary - The report outlines that the purpose of addressing involution is to alleviate deflation and stabilize employment. Since October 2022, China's industrial PPI has been in negative growth, particularly in globally competitive sectors like photovoltaics and automotive, leading to price declines. The report anticipates that policy implementation will be gradual and moderate [10]. Paths to Address Involution - Limiting Capital Expenditure: This path is expected to benefit demand-driven industries, which have historically seen continuous growth in new capacity. Limiting capital expenditure could lead to a stronger economic cycle and higher profit margins. Key segments in building materials include photovoltaic glass, fiberglass, and carbon fiber [10]. - Clearing Existing Production Capacity: For industries with peak demand, such as cement and glass, capacity reduction is necessary. The report notes that state-owned enterprises are more likely to implement capacity reduction policies effectively, as seen in previous supply-side reforms in coal and steel [10]. - Restricting Current Output: This approach may lead to short-term profit recovery but complicates long-term capacity reduction. The report mentions that current output restrictions are often self-imposed by the industry, such as staggered production in cement and limited production by leading photovoltaic glass companies [10].