稳定币专题研究之二：稳定币，看好场景拓展规模扩张

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The application scenarios for stablecoins are continuously expanding, with a future scale expected to reach $3.5 trillion [3][25] - Circle, as a leading company in the stablecoin sector, demonstrates growth potential and challenges in its business layout, ecosystem construction, and financial performance [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Stablecoins: Continuous Expansion of Application Scenarios - Since the launch of the first stablecoin USDT in 2014, stablecoins have evolved from focusing solely on cryptocurrency trading to applications in payments and traditional finance [7] - Major developments include JPM Coin for cross-border trade settlements and PayPal USD for consumer payments, indicating a broadening of use cases [7][8] 2. Future Scale of Stablecoins - The future scale of stablecoins is projected to reach $3.5 trillion, driven by four main scenarios: cryptocurrency trading, cross-border payments, daily consumer payments, and traditional capital market applications [25][26] - In cryptocurrency trading, stablecoins are expected to reach $363.3 billion by 2030, assuming a 10% growth in the cryptocurrency market [15][26] - For cross-border payments, stablecoins could capture 20% of the market, leading to a demand of $2.9 trillion [15][26] - Daily consumer payments could see stablecoin demand of $121.6 billion, assuming a 10% market share [15][21] - In traditional capital markets, stablecoin demand is estimated at $133.3 billion under neutral scenarios [15][26] 3. Circle: The First Publicly Listed Stablecoin Company - Circle, founded in 2013, is set to go public in 2025 and focuses on its self-issued stablecoin USDC, which is expected to account for 99.1% of its revenue by 2024 [25][26] - The company has built an ecosystem around USDC, including stablecoin issuance, tokenized funds, liquidity services, and developer tools [25][31] - Circle's revenue is highly tied to reserve asset yields, benefiting from the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, with projected revenue of $1.676 billion in 2024 [25][41] 4. Financial Performance and Challenges - Circle's revenue has shown significant growth, from $772 million in 2022 to $1.45 billion in 2023, with a further increase to $1.676 billion expected in 2024 [44] - The company's gross margin has declined from 60% in 2022 to 39% in 2024 due to rising distribution and transaction costs [48] - Circle's financial model is sensitive to external economic variables, particularly interest rates and market events, which can lead to volatile profit margins [46][50]