国金地缘政治周观察｜如何看待中美后续的经贸互动？

Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The US and China reached partial agreement on export controls, with the US lifting restrictions on EDA software and aircraft engines, while China eased controls on certain materials[4] - The core issues in US-China trade talks include a 20% tariff on fentanyl and a 24% deferred tariff, with expectations that the 20% tariff may be reduced, but the 24% tariff will require longer negotiations[5] - The deadline for trade negotiations is July 9, with potential outcomes affecting the future of the fentanyl tariff discussions[5] Group 2: US Trade Agreements with Other Countries - The US has reached trade agreements with Vietnam and Cambodia, but negotiations with the EU, Japan, India, and Canada have not made significant progress[3] - The US plans to impose a 40% tariff on re-exported goods from Vietnam, which may set a precedent for future agreements with other countries regarding China[6] - The Trump administration is expected to adopt a strategy of "increasing some tariffs while delaying others" to exert pressure on trade negotiation countries[5] Group 3: Tariff and Trade Policy Implications - Future unfavorable tariff clauses against China may include increased tariffs on re-exported goods, reduced supply chain reliance on China, and anti-dumping investigations targeting specific industries[6] - The US is accelerating Section 232 investigations, focusing on key industries such as pharmaceuticals and copper, with existing tariffs of 50% on steel and aluminum and 25% on automobiles[33] - The potential for a judicial battle over tariffs could shift the trade war paradigm from comprehensive tariffs to targeted structural tariffs[6]