板块观点汇总品种中期结构短期结构原油震荡、偏小时周期策略-20250708

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector remains weak. Most chemical products are currently bearish, with a preference for holding short positions. The "anti-involution" expectation has limited positive impact on the energy and chemical sector, and the overall outlook is still bearish [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sector - Most chemical products have a mid - term structure of either shock or bearish, a short - term structure of bearish, and the strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle. The "anti - involution" expectation has a potential positive impact on PVC, but its positive impact on the energy and chemical sector is limited [2] 3.2 Individual Products 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in August, with an accelerated increase exceeding expectations, increasing the medium - term supply surplus pressure. However, due to the low inventory during the consumption peak season and the fact that the actual seaborne shipments of OPEC+ production have not increased significantly, the short - term bearishness is not obvious. The bullish factors are concentrated in the short term, and the bearish factors are concentrated in the medium term. Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in shock, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. The rebound today did not change the pressure, and there was a large amount of position reduction at the end of the session. The short - term market is still weak, with the short - term upper pressure level at 512. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [3] 3.2.2 Styrene (EB) - Logic: High device profits increase the supply expectation of styrene. The start - up has reached a recent high, and there will be greater supply pressure with the subsequent launch of new devices. The current inventory is turning to accumulation, and the bearish pressure is gradually being realized. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an increase in positions and a decline today. Pay attention to whether it can break the support at the lower edge of the small - cycle shock range to accelerate the decline. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [7] 3.2.3 Rubber - Logic: The natural rubber inventory has been accumulating against the season for 4 consecutive weeks. The "anti - involution" expectation puts more pressure on the terminal automobile and the currently over - supplied tire industry, and has no impact on rubber supply. High supply and weak demand are still the main tone of rubber supply and demand. Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the short - term pressure level is still at 14100. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [9] 3.2.4 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The demand side of tires still maintains a weak demand expectation. The start - up of semi - steel tires is likely to decline in the future under the huge inventory. After the subsequent launch of large - scale devices, the surplus pressure of butadiene will further expand. The "anti - involution" expectation has a greater impact on the terminal automobile and the over - supplied tire industry, and its impact on synthetic rubber supply is difficult to judge at present and is unlikely to have a substantial impact. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. After a large increase in positions and a long - negative line on Monday, today is a rebound with a reduction in positions, but the decline path remains unchanged. The short - term upper pressure level is temporarily focused on 11380. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [12] 3.2.5 PX - Logic: There is weak demand in the off - season. Although the inventory has been decreasing due to some device overhauls before, the profit has recovered significantly, and the device recovery expectation is strong. After the subsequent start - up increases, the fundamentals are expected to weaken under the weak off - season demand. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the market is still weak. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 6870. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [16] 3.2.6 PTA - Logic: In the off - season, the downstream polyester demand is average, and the polyester start - up is expected to decline. The supply is expected to increase as the PX device overhauls are restored. The fundamentals are expected to weaken. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and it is still regarded as weak. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 4840. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [18] 3.2.7 PP - Logic: The PP level remains relatively high. The previously overhauled devices have gradually resumed, and there will be new capacity put into production later, resulting in greater supply pressure. The downstream start - up declines in the off - season, and the fundamentals are expected to be weak, so it is treated bearishly. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the market is still weak. The short - term upper pressure level is focused on 7140. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20] 3.2.8 Methanol - Logic: On the supply side, the domestic start - up has declined, but it is still at a high level in recent years compared to the same period. The arrivals in June remained high, and the Iranian devices in the Middle East have restarted. Although the current shipments are small, the concern about the long - term import reduction has weakened. The downstream demand is average, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The supply - demand expectation is still regarded as bearish. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline. There was an increase in positions and a decline today, and a new low was reached in the 15 - minute short - cycle. The recent market is still weak, and the short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 2430. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [23] 3.2.9 PVC - Logic: The downstream terminal demand remains weak in the real - estate downward cycle and is difficult to improve. The Indian BIS certification has been postponed to December 24, but no domestic enterprise has obtained the certification. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the supply side is low, but the start - up still maintains the same - period high. The supply - demand is weak, but the "anti - involution" expectation brings short - term positive expectations. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the upper pressure is temporarily seen at 4955. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [25] 3.2.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Domestic devices have resumed production, and ethane imports have recovered. The downstream polyester start - up declines in the off - season, and the bearish factors have not dissipated, but the currently low port inventory provides some positive support. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the short - term upper pressure is 4345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [27][28] 3.2.11 Plastic - Logic: The downstream demand is weak in the off - season, and there are plans to put new capacity into production, so the supply - demand expectation is weak. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the upper pressure is temporarily focused on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [29]