天富期货：棕油劲升、玉米探低

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil price has risen sharply due to expected positive monthly supply - demand data from MPOB, while the corn price continues to decline under the pressure of auctions and wheat substitution. Other agricultural products also show different trends based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil has a strong upward trend as the market anticipates a positive monthly supply - demand report from MPOB due to falling production and strong export demand. Corn continues to decline under the pressure of continuous auctions of imported corn by Sinograin and the obvious substitution advantage of wheat for feed use. Soybean meal fluctuates weakly with increasing supply and inventory. Apples see an expanded decline due to the off - season and competition from summer fruits [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract has risen strongly to a more than 3 - month high. The market expects the MPOB monthly report to be positive as high - frequency data shows reduced supply and increased demand. Technically, it shows strength. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position long positions, with support at 8500 and resistance at 8700 [2]. 3.2.2 Corn - The corn main 2509 contract continues to reach new lows. Sinograin's continuous auction of imported corn and the substitution advantage of wheat for feed use put pressure on the price. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 2300 and resistance at 2330 [3]. 3.2.3 Eggs - The egg main 2508 contract continues to decline due to high production capacity and supply. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 3400 and resistance at 3450 [6]. 3.2.4 Pigs - The pig 2509 contract fluctuates and rebounds. The supply of suitable - weight pigs has improved, but there are still speculations about reduced July slaughter due to earlier piglet diarrhea. The demand lacks highlights. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 14200 and resistance at 14400 [8]. 3.2.5 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates and declines. Good weather in US soybean - producing areas and high domestic soybean arrivals lead to high supply and inventory. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 2920 and resistance at 2945 [9][11]. 3.2.6 Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract rebounds, driven by the rise of palm oil. However, the abundant supply of imported soybeans and high inventory may limit the rebound. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 7858 and resistance at 7966 [12][15]. 3.2.7 Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract fluctuates and closes up, running at a high level. The continuous reduction of commercial inventory and low imports support the price, but the off - season in the textile industry restricts the demand. Technically, it shows an upward trend. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position long positions, with support at 13700 and resistance at 13900 [16]. 3.2.8 Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main 2509 contract continues to decline due to the pressure of long - position liquidation. The decline of the overseas raw sugar price and the expected increase in imported sugar put pressure on the domestic price. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 5725 and resistance at 5767 [18]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - The red date main 2601 contract fluctuates and closes down, with a slight adjustment. The suitable temperature in the main production area is conducive to fruit setting, but the off - season in consumption and high inventory put pressure on the price. Technically, there is still adjustment pressure. The recommended strategy is short - term trading after closing long positions, with support at 10330 and resistance at 10560 [21]. 3.2.10 Apples - The apple main 2510 contract drops significantly. The off - season and competition from summer fruits lead to slow sales. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 7600 and resistance at 7672 [22][24].