广金期货策略早餐-20250708

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - This report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overall: The report analyzes multiple commodity futures and options, including livestock, soft commodities, and energy, and provides short - term and medium - term views and trading strategies for each variety. - Livestock and Soft Commodities: - Pig: The current supply and demand are both weak, with a short - term narrow - range shock and a medium - term pattern of near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to sell high [1][2]. - Sugar: It shows a short - term weak shock and a medium - term trend of rising first and then falling. It is advisable to sell high [3][4][5]. - Energy: - Crude Oil: It has a short - term weak shock and a medium - term downward pressure. Selling out - of - the - money call options on SC crude oil is recommended [6][7][8]. - PVC: It has a short - term range shock and limited upward space in the medium term. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options [9][10]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig - Short - term View: Narrow - range shock [1] - Medium - term View: Near - strong and far - weak [1] - Strategy: Sell high [2] - Core Logic: - Supply: The average weight of pig slaughter is decreasing, and the weight - reduction rhythm is accelerating due to policy and temperature. The market's ability to digest pork is limited, and the demand for large pigs is in the off - season [1]. - Demand: The secondary fattening group may continue to enter the market due to low pig prices, low feed prices, and an expanding standard - fat price difference. Secondary fattening still has a continuous impact on pig prices [1]. - Market: The short - term supply - demand mismatch leads to a strong bullish sentiment, but the current supply - demand is weak, and there is no strong driving force for a sharp rise [2]. Sugar - Short - term View: Weak shock [3] - Medium - term View: Rising first and then falling [3] - Strategy: Sell high [4] - Core Logic: - International: The global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 4.7% year - on - year, with a significant supply surplus. Brazil's gasoline price cut and expected production increase, as well as India's expected large - scale production increase, will put pressure on sugar prices in the medium and long term [4]. - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the inventory pressure is small, but the import profit window is open, and the future supply pressure is the core factor restricting sugar prices. The current basis can support the market, but the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to be realized [5]. Crude Oil - Short - term View: Weak shock [6] - Medium - term View: Under pressure [6] - Strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options on SC crude oil [6] - Core Logic: - Supply: OPEC + will increase production in August, and may increase production significantly again in early August. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the growth rate of U.S. crude oil production will slow down in the long term [6][7]. - Demand: Although the refinery operating rates in major consuming countries are high, the downstream demand has not reached the peak season level. The demand for gasoline and diesel has limited growth [7]. - Inventory: The U.S. crude oil inventory has unexpectedly increased, and commercial crude oil inventories will accumulate in the third quarter [8]. PVC - Short - term View: Range shock (4800 - 5000) [9] - Medium - term View: Limited upward space [9] - Strategy: Hold the strategy of selling out - of - the money call options [9] - Core Logic: - Cost: The supply of calcium carbide has increased, and the price has decreased [9]. - Supply: Some PVC plants are under maintenance, but there are new production capacity expectations, and the supply will increase significantly [9][10]. - Demand: The low - level rebound of PVC futures prices has boosted the replenishment willingness of some downstream enterprises, but the downstream operating rate is low, and the domestic demand will continue to weaken. The export has short - term support, but there is uncertainty in anti - dumping policies [10]. - Inventory: The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the PVC inventory has accumulated [10].