农产品日报-20250708

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different agricultural products are as follows: Pig and egg are rated ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish or bullish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, pigs, and eggs, considering factors such as weather, policy, supply - demand, and market sentiment to evaluate their market trends [2][3][4]. Summary by Product Soybeans - In the Northeast region, the temperature is high and precipitation is abundant this week, and the soil moisture is suitable. Future rainfall in North China, Northeast China, and the eastern part of Northwest China will be 30% - 60% more than usual, which is beneficial for crop growth. All 16,272 tons of domestic soybeans in the planned rotation sales were sold at an average price of 4,277 yuan/ton. The weather in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to crop growth in the coming week. Short - term focus should be on weather and policy guidance [2]. Soybeans and Soybean Meal - As of the week ending July 6, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the same as the previous week and market expectations, but lower than 68% last year. The emergence rate was 96% and the flowering rate was 32%. Future rainfall in most US soybean - producing areas will fluctuate slightly around the normal level, and the temperature will be slightly lower than normal. The Trump administration has threatened to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on multiple countries, with the implementation postponed to August 1. The Dalian soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate [3]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil is strong and soybean oil follows. In June, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased, demand increased, and inventory decreased. The market's expectation for its supply - demand has improved. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report. High - temperature risks in Ukraine and the EU for sunflower seeds may boost palm oil prices. In the third quarter, overseas palm oil is in a seasonal production - increasing cycle. In the long - term, biodiesel development can support vegetable oil prices, so a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Short - term focus should be on policy and weather [4]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market shows a pattern of strong oil and weak meal, related to the decline of Canadian rapeseed powder and the rise of vegetable oil. Due to rainfall in Canada, the rapeseed price dropped by 3%, and rapeseed meal is expected to remain weak. Rapeseed oil follows the rise of palm oil. The long - term supply of domestic rapeseed products is more uncertain, and the far - month oil - to - meal ratio may increase. Rapeseed meal is expected to remain weak in the short - term, and rapeseed oil will mainly follow the vegetable oil sector [6]. Corn - Since July, Dalian corn has been falling due to CGSG auctions. Last week's high auction success rate and premium affected market expectations, and the supply from some grass - roots traders increased. The auction results have declined slightly in the past two days. Shandong's spot supply has increased, and the north - south port inventories have risen slightly with weak demand. The corn market has few contradictions, and the futures may continue to fluctuate [7]. Pigs - The pig futures fluctuate narrowly, and the spot price is stable. After the recent rise in the futures and fall in the spot, the basis has narrowed significantly. The inventory of breeding sows increased in June, and there is long - term production capacity pressure, so the upward space of the futures is limited, and the pig price may decline in the medium - to - long - term [8]. Eggs - The egg spot price continues to fall, and the futures contracts of August, September, December, and later hit new lows. The 18 - contract still has a premium of over 1,000 yuan to the spot. The weekly old - hen culling has slowed down. The long - term egg price cycle has not bottomed out, and a short - selling strategy on the futures is recommended [9].