黑色金属日报-20250708

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides operation ratings for various commodities: 3-star ratings (★★★) for Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Silicomanganese, and Ferrosilicon; no clear indication for Coking Coal and Manganese Silicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a state of short - term oscillation. The market is concerned about terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies. The steel market is cautious due to uncertainties in policies and demand. The iron ore market's upward movement depends on more policy support. The coke and coking coal markets face upward pressure due to inventory. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets follow the rebar trend with limited fundamental improvement [2][3][7] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market oscillated today. Rebar's apparent demand increased, production rose, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production remained high, and inventory accumulated. Iron - water production decreased but stayed high. From the downstream perspective, infrastructure recovery lacks sustainability, real - estate sales are low, and manufacturing is resilient. The market is cautious due to policy uncertainties and "anti - involution" expectations, and it will oscillate in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated today. Global shipments decreased after the end - of - quarter rush, while domestic arrivals rebounded, and port inventory increased. Steel apparent demand was stable at a low level, and steel mills' profitability was okay. There is still some production - cut pressure. The market sentiment improved, but further price increases need more policies. Iron ore's short - term trend will follow steel products [3] Coke - The coke price oscillated during the day. There is an expectation of price increase, but coking profits are thin, and daily production declined. Inventory decreased, and both traders' and steel mills' purchasing improved. The carbon supply is abundant, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact. The coke futures price has a premium, and there is upward pressure due to inventory [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated upward during the day. Coking coal mine production increased, the spot auction market improved, and terminal inventory rose. Total coking coal inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. The carbon supply is abundant, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact. The coking coal futures price has a premium, and there is upward pressure due to inventory [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price oscillated upward during the day. Inventory decreased due to previous production cuts, but weekly production increased, and on - balance - sheet inventory rose. Manganese ore inventory is increasing in the long - term, and the current inventory is low, with mines having a stronger willingness to hold prices. The price of Comilog's oxidized ore increased slightly. The silicomanganese market follows the rebar trend, and there is significant pressure at the 6750 level [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated during the day. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was around 30,000 tons, with limited marginal impact. Magnesium production increased, and secondary demand was stable at a high level. Ferrosilicon supply decreased, market trading was average, on - balance - sheet inventory decreased, but production - end inventory increased. Some producers may use a trading model to help with inventory reduction. The ferrosilicon market follows the rebar trend, and there is limited driving force for continuous price rebound [8]