能源日报-20250708

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆★, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with some upward drivers but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel Oil: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The impact of OPEC+'s rapid production increase policy on oil prices in Q3 is temporarily limited, but after the peak season, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may face downward pressure. Crude oil is expected to have a higher bottom and be volatile and bullish in Q3 [1] - For fuel oil, high - sulfur fuel oil is weak due to low demand and eased supply risks, while low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil with a short - term bullish crack spread [2] - The actual asphalt production in June exceeded the plan, inventory started to accumulate, demand recovery is delayed, and the fundamental weakness restricts the upward space of asphalt prices [2] - The international LPG market has a loose supply, overseas prices may be under pressure, and the LPG futures market is expected to be volatile and bearish [3] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Yesterday, international oil prices opened low and closed high, with the SC08 contract rising 1.88% during the trading day [1] - OPEC+'s actual monthly production increase is less than the target increase, and Q3 is a seasonal peak for gasoline and jet fuel demand, so the production increase can be well absorbed. After Q3, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline [1] - The final result of the US tariff game may not be higher than the level in early April, and crude oil is expected to have a higher bottom and be volatile and bullish in Q3 [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the rise in oil product futures, followed by low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), while high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) was relatively weak [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and supply risks are eased, leading to a continuous weakening of FU's single - side price and crack spread [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure was limited due to the coking profit and diesel crack spread, but demand lacks a clear driver, and LU follows crude oil with a short - term bullish crack spread [2] Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery production exceeded the plan by 10000 tons (+4.3%), and inventory started to accumulate by 24000 tons in late June [2] - In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly, and the cumulative shipment volume since the beginning of the year decreased from an 8% year - on - year increase to 7% [2] - High temperature and rainfall may delay demand recovery, and Q3 is a key window for demand observation. The asphalt price follows crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit the upward space [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international LPG market supply is generally loose, and overseas prices may be under pressure due to OPEC's expected production increase in August [3] - Last week, new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH margins. Attention should be paid to the rebound rhythm of PDH operating rates [3] - In summer, the supply pressure increases, overseas prices are under pressure, and the futures market is volatile and bearish [3]