股指日报：建议谨慎做多，预计3月高点突破难度大-20250708

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation", suggesting a cautious long - position approach. It is expected that it will be difficult to break through the high point in March [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, although the daily line has continuously broken through upwards, indicating strong investor sentiment, the trading volume last week failed to increase effectively, and the futures discount of stock index futures expanded against the trend, meaning that the speculative sentiment of small and medium - sized funds did not follow synchronously. The anti - involution policy mainly targets the mid - stream manufacturing sector, and its policy effects will take longer to materialize compared with the previous supply - side reform, so the sustainability of the relevant sector's market is expected to be limited. The market is currently in the preparation period of a bull market. Although a package of policies has strengthened the medium - term upward expectation of the stock index, substantial improvement will not be seen until Q4 2025 or 2026 at the earliest. Before that, the stock index is expected to continue the range - bound pattern. Currently, the stock index is at a short - term high, and it is expected to be difficult to break through the high point in March [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - US President Trump threatened to impose a new 10% tariff on BRICS countries. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that the BRICS mechanism advocates open - mindedness, inclusiveness, cooperation, and win - win results, and does not engage in camp confrontation. Trade wars and tariff wars have no winners, and protectionism has no future. Trump has issued tariff threats to 14 countries, with Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Tunisia facing a 25% tariff rate [4] Stock Index Disk Review - Disk Tracking: In the previous trading day, the A - share market fluctuated and adjusted. Among the four major indexes, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.33%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.43%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.24%. The real estate (+1.75%) and household goods (+1.75%) sectors led the gains, while the biotechnology (-1.31%) and motorcycle (-1.20%) sectors lagged. More than 3,200 stocks rose, and 79 stocks hit the daily limit, showing a good profit - making effect [4] - Technical Tracking: Small - cap stock indexes generally broke through the high point in May, with the daily and weekly lines turning bullish, but the monthly line still faced significant pressure, and the medium - term trend remained oscillatory [4] - Fund Flow: The trading volume of the A - share market dropped to around 1.2 trillion yuan, and investor sentiment turned cautious [4] Core Logic Summary - The market is in the preparation period of a bull market. Although policies have strengthened the medium - term upward expectation of the stock index, substantial improvement will not be seen until Q4 2025 or 2026 at the earliest. Before that, the stock index will continue to oscillate within a range. It is currently at a short - term high, and it is difficult to break through the high point in March [3] Operation Suggestions - Futures Operation: The short - term trend is strongly oscillatory, and it is difficult to break through the high point in March. It is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions in IM within a day. Long - term layout of futures alternative long positions for index investment can continue to be held [3] - Option Operation: The implied volatility of stock index options oscillates at a low level, and the at - the - money IV of the current - month CSI 300 has reached around 12%. The previous short - term double - selling positions can take profits and exit, and can re - enter after the second wave of volatility increase [3]