山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250708

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term outlook for precious metals is that gold is weaker than silver, mid - term they will oscillate at high levels, and long - term they will rise step - by - step. Factors influencing this include short - term easing of Middle - East geopolitical conflicts while risks of economic recession and geopolitical异动 remain; increasing risk of stagflation in the US economy, and strong employment suppressing rate - cut expectations. In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump extended the "reciprocal" tariff effective date. Regarding the monetary attribute, chances of the Fed's interest rate falling to near - zero still exist, and strong US employment growth reduces the possibility of a near - term rate cut. For the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index has pressure on rebound, and a strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [3]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have reduced positions again. On the inventory side, the recent visible inventory of silver has increased slightly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals showed gold being weaker than silver. The main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.43%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.22% [3]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Data Summary: - Price: Comex gold main contract closed at $3346.40 per ounce, up 0.31% from the previous day and 0.95% from last week; London gold was at $3315.35 per ounce, down 0.50% from the previous day but up 0.85% from last week. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 776.22 yuan per gram, up 0.64% from the previous day and 0.02% from last week [4]. - Positions and Inventories: Comex gold positions decreased by 0.81% week - on - week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 6.97% week - on - week. LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged at 8598 tons; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% week - on - week [4]. - Net Positions of Futures Companies: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the total net - long position of the top 5 decreased by 798, and that of the top 10 decreased by 1787. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the total net - short position of the top 5 decreased by 21, and that of the top 10 increased by 125 [5]. Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [8]. - Data Summary: - Price: Comex silver main contract closed at $36.94 per ounce, down 0.27% from the previous day but up 1.68% from last week; London silver was at $36.25 per ounce, down 1.74% from the previous day and up 0.75% from last week. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 8953 yuan per kilogram, up 0.63% from the previous day and 1.62% from last week [8]. - Positions and Inventories: Comex silver positions decreased by 6.33% week - on - week; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 27.73% week - on - week. LBMA silver inventory increased by 4.08% week - on - week; Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.28% week - on - week [8]. - Net Positions of Futures Companies: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the total net - long position of the top 5 increased by 11872, and that of the top 10 increased by 10600. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the total net - short position of the top 5 increased by 1568, and that of the top 10 increased by 2299 [9]. Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 from the previous level; the Fed's total assets are $67103.64 billion, down 0.00% week - on - week [10]. - Inflation and Yield Data: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.57, up 4.05% week - on - week; the US dollar index is 97.55, up 0.76% week - on - week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.52, down 20.29% week - on - week [10]. - Other Key Indicators: The US - EU yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 1.83, up 100.00% compared to the previous value; the US - China yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 3.27, up 5.03% compared to the previous value [12]. - Central Bank Gold Reserves: China's central bank gold reserves are 2298.55 tons, up 0.18% compared to the previous value; the US's are 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's total is 36250.15 tons, unchanged [12][13]. - Risk - related Indexes: The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, up 23.60% week - on - week; the VIX index is 17.32, down 2.64% from the previous day but up 2.91% week - on - week [13]. - Commodity - related Indexes: The CRB commodity index is 299.28, down 0.22% from the previous day but up 1.09% week - on - week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1729, up 0.15% week - on - week [13]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest - rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided. For example, at the July 30, 2025 meeting, the probability of the interest rate being in the 250 - 275 range is 25.3%, and in the 275 - 300 range is 74.7% [14].