苯乙烯日报：纯苯期货首日上市，整体波动较小-20250708

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Supply is boosted by the restart of some plants and new production lines, while demand has mostly recovered to pre - second - quarter levels. Port inventory is likely to accumulate, and the potential early production of Yulong Petrochemical's pure benzene plant has affected market sentiment and widened the price difference with styrene [3]. - The styrene market's supply - demand pattern is weakening. Supply pressure is increasing as weekly production reaches a historical high, and demand from downstream industries is softening. Port inventory is rising, and styrene has entered an inventory - building phase. Attention should be paid to the basis adjustment rhythm and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical's disproportionation unit [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Market Summary - Fundamentals: - Price: On July 7, the styrene main contract closed down 0.04% at 7337 yuan/ton, with a basis of 303 (+13 yuan/ton). - Cost: The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 67.0 dollars/barrel (+0 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil at 68.3 dollars/barrel (-0.5 dollars/barrel), and the East China pure benzene spot price was 5880 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton). - Inventory: Styrene sample factory inventory was 19.4 million tons (-0.6 million tons), a 3.0% de - stocking, while Jiangsu port inventory was 9.9 million tons (+1.4 million tons), a 16.2% inventory build - up. - Supply: Styrene's maintenance devices are gradually returning, with a weekly output of 36.7 million tons (+0 million tons) and a factory capacity utilization rate of 80.0% (-0.1%). - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S industries have declined. EPS is at 55.9% (-3.84%), ABS at 65.0% (-1.0%), and PS at 52.4% (-5.0%) [2]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - Prices: - Styrene: The futures main - contract price dropped 0.04% to 7337 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 0.13% to 7914 yuan/ton. The basis increased 4.48% to 303 yuan/ton. - Pure Benzene: The East China price remained unchanged at 5880 yuan/ton, the South Korea FOB price dropped 0.42% to 711.5 dollars/ton, the US FOB price rose 2.29% to 817.8 dollars/ton, and the China CFR price dropped 0.41% to 727.5 dollars/ton. - Spreads: The pure benzene internal - benefit - CFR spread increased 6.60% to -398.1 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene East China - Shandong spread decreased 71.43% to -120.0 yuan/ton. - Upstream: Brent crude oil was flat at 67.0 dollars/ton, WTI crude oil dropped 0.73% to 68.3 dollars/ton, and naphtha dropped 0.39% to 7751.5 yuan/ton [6]. - Output and Inventory: - Output: China's styrene output was 36.7 million tons (-0.07%), and pure benzene output was 43.3 million tons (+0.16%). - Inventory: Jiangsu styrene port inventory increased 16.24% to 9.9 million tons, domestic styrene factory inventory decreased 2.99% to 19.4 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased 3.51% to 17.7 million tons [7]. - Capacity Utilization: - Pure Benzene Downstream: Styrene's capacity utilization dropped 0.05% to 80.0%, caprolactam rose 6.41% to 95.7%, phenol dropped 0.46% to 78.5%, and aniline dropped 0.10% to 69.2%. - Styrene Downstream: EPS dropped 3.84% to 55.9%, ABS dropped 0.96% to 65.0%, and PS dropped 5.00% to 52.4% [8]. 3.3. Industry News - Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, and the US Treasury Secretary admits it may be difficult to complete all negotiations. - Trump may lead a delegation to China, and US officials are formulating a plan for him to visit China with dozens of CEOs later this year. - The US Senate passed the Trump tax - reform bill in a key procedural vote with a 51 - 49 margin [9].