宝城期货有色日报：有色震荡上行-20250708

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - Copper: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated upward with a slight decline in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the stock and commodity markets rose generally. After the futures price declined, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory increased, and the spread between July and August strengthened. With short - term macro improvement and enhanced industrial support, the futures price stabilized and rebounded at the 20 - day moving average and is expected to continue to rebound [5]. - Aluminum: Today, Shanghai aluminum showed a strong - side fluctuation. The domestic macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the stock and commodity markets rose generally. Downstream entered the off - season and had a fear - of - high - price sentiment, causing the destocking of Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory to slow down. Technically, the futures price faced some pressure at the June high, and the support at the 20 - day moving average should be watched [6]. - Nickel: Today, Shanghai nickel dived in the morning session, and the main futures price fluctuated narrowly above 120,000. The domestic macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the stock and commodity markets rose generally, but nickel performed weakly in the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, with the domestic macro improvement and the strengthening of stainless steel, downstream demand may improve, supporting the nickel price. Technically, the support at the 120,000 mark should be watched [7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - Copper: Recently, many copper enterprises announced their production and operation conditions in the first half of 2025, with production and operation continuing to be stable and good, achieving the "double - half" goal and laying a solid foundation for the full - year goal. On July 7, Mysteel's domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,500 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared with the 30th and an increase of 18,100 tons compared with the 3rd [9]. - Aluminum: On July 7, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 465,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with the 3rd and an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the 30th [9]. - Nickel: On July 8, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the Shanghai nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 1,950 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,190 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 500 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,740 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,990 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,340 yuan/ton [10]. Group 4: Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina price trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - Nickel: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].