Workflow
情绪带动,硅系价格走势坚挺
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-08 14:08

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, although the spot and futures prices have rebounded recently, the oversupply situation is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and the selling pressure after the price rebound will suppress the silicon price. The operating range is expected to be between 7,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side structural adjustment has brought positive sentiment, and the short - term futures market is expected to be strong. However, there is a high risk of inventory accumulation, and the upward driving force is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - Industrial Silicon: The futures and spot prices of industrial silicon have shown a resonance upward trend. For example, the industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 7,980 yuan/ton on July 4, 2025, with different price changes in various regions and grades [8]. - Polysilicon: The price of polysilicon has rebounded from a low level. For instance, the N - type material price increased from 33.50 yuan/kg on June 27 to 34.50 yuan/kg on July 4 [8]. - Silicon Wafer: The demand for silicon wafers is insufficient, the price has decreased across all sizes, and the production schedule has dropped to about 52GW [3]. - Battery Cell: The production schedule of battery cells in July is expected to drop to about 54GW, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3]. - Component: The terminal demand for components has been severely overdrawn, new orders are limited, and the price is on a downward trend [3]. - Organic Silicon: The price of organic silicon continues to decline. As of July 4, the average price of DMC remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton, while the average prices of 107 glue and silicone oil decreased [96]. - Silicon Aluminum Alloy: The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has declined. As of July 4, the average price of ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of A356 decreased by 0.47% [109]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - Industrial Silicon - Cost: The power cost in the southwest production area is gradually decreasing, and the prices of raw materials such as silicon coal and silicon stone are also falling, providing insufficient support for the silicon price [3]. - Supply: The number of open furnaces in some regions has increased, and the overall supply is expected to rise. For example, in the week of July 3, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 13 units [37]. - Demand: The demand from polysilicon enterprises has increased, while the demand from organic silicon and silicon - aluminum alloy industries is average or weak [3]. - Inventory: The standard futures warehouse receipts are flowing out, but the inventory is still at a high level [3]. - Polysilicon - Supply: In July, some enterprises increased production, and some carried out maintenance. After offsetting, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons [3]. - Demand: The terminal demand for photovoltaic has been overdrawn, the domestic orders have decreased significantly, and the overseas orders are relatively stable. The demand for polysilicon is weak [3]. - Inventory: As of July 3, the total polysilicon inventory was 272,000 tons, and as of July 4, the number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts was 2,780 lots [3]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - Organic Silicon: The start - up of the organic silicon industry has recovered, but it is still mainly in a state of reduced production. The demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [89][93]. - Silicon Aluminum Alloy: The start - up rate of the silicon - aluminum alloy industry has rebounded slightly, but the demand is still weak, and the price has declined [104][109]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - Industrial Silicon: As of July 3, the social inventory of industrial silicon (warehouse inventory + delivery warehouse) was 552,000 tons, and the total factory inventory of the three major production areas was 201,000 tons. As of July 4, the number of registered exchange warehouse receipts was 51,701 lots, equivalent to 258,500 tons of spot [119].