装置边际恢复叠加港口累库，乙二醇延续震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current ethylene glycol market shows a stalemate under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Although the high cost of oil - based routes due to firm crude oil prices leads to continuous losses, there is a possibility of marginal recovery in coal - chemical supply with stable coal prices. The downstream polyester factories maintain high loads but have difficulty in passing on inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption momentum is weakening. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price may maintain a range - bound movement, constrained by inventory pressure on the upside and supported by costs on the downside. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of coal - chemical plants and fluctuations in polyester production and sales data [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract has declined slightly for three consecutive days, reaching 4,305 yuan/ton on July 7, a decrease of 8 yuan or 0.19% from July 4. The basis between futures and spot has widened to 65 yuan/ton, indicating a weakening of long - term sentiment in the futures market [2]. - In terms of production profit, coal - based production losses remain at 262 yuan/ton, while naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production are still in deep losses. The overall losses of high - cost processes rigidly restrict the supply side [2]. - In the supply - demand structure, the total ethylene glycol operating rate has slightly increased by 0.2% to 62.43%, but the operating rate of coal - based plants at 57.2% is still at a historical low. The loads of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms are flat compared to the previous values, and the demand side lacks elasticity [2]. - The inventory at the main ports in East China has increased by 3.6 tons to 54.2 tons in a single week, with Zhangjiagang's inventory increasing by 7.2%. Meanwhile, the arrival volume has significantly decreased by 4.4 tons to 8.43 tons, indicating a significant slowdown in terminal提货 speed and inventory accumulation pressure in the circulation link [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract decreased by 8 yuan to 4,305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%. The trading volume decreased by 48,478 lots to 146,416 lots, a decrease of 24.87%. The open interest decreased by 2,226 lots to 287,398 lots, a decrease of 0.77% [4]. - Spot: The spot price in the East China market remained stable at 4,350 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 8 yuan to 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.04% [4]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4 yuan to - 20 yuan, a decrease of 25.00%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6 yuan to 46 yuan, a decrease of 11.54%. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 yuan to - 26 yuan, an increase of 27.78% [4]. - Profits: The naphtha - based profit increased by 1 dollar/ton to - 108 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.29%. The ethylene - based profit increased by 147 yuan/ton to - 800 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.50%. The coal - based profit remained unchanged at - 262 yuan/ton [4]. - Operating Rates: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.2% to 62.4%. The coal - based operating rate increased by 0.4% to 57.2%. The oil - based, polyester factory, Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates remained unchanged [4]. - Inventory and Arrival Volume: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 3.6 tons to 54.2 tons, an increase of 7.18%. The Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 1.2 tons to 17.6 tons, an increase of 7.20%. The arrival volume decreased by 4.41 tons to 8.43 tons, a decrease of 34.35% [4]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 7, the East China ethylene glycol US dollar market was narrowly adjusted in the morning and remained stalemate in the afternoon, with the negotiation range of July cargoes at 508 - 510 dollars/ton and no transactions reported [5]. - On July 7, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi region was lowered, with the market average price around 3,880 yuan/ton for self - pick - up [5]. - On July 7, the mainstream market price remained weak, the sentiment of industry players was pessimistic, and the change in the South China market was limited, with the current price around 4,420 yuan/ton for delivery [5]. - On July 7, the ethylene glycol ports had inventory accumulation, the supply side was under pressure, and industry players were bearish on the future market, with the current negotiation price in East China around 4,345 yuan/ton [5]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol futures contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, weekly inventory statistics of the East China main ports of ethylene glycol, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]