中诚信国际一季度主权信用级别调整：新兴市场国家阶段性风险缓释，特朗普关税冲击再添变数

Economic Overview - Global economic growth momentum is weakening, influenced by trade frictions, monetary policy paths, and geopolitical factors, leading to increased volatility in economic and financial markets[1] - Geopolitical risks remain high, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East exacerbating global economic uncertainty[1] - Emerging markets are experiencing some relief in sovereign credit risk due to a global trend towards lower interest rates[1] Impact of Tariffs - Trump's tariff policy, implemented on April 2, is expected to worsen global trade imbalances and hinder economic growth, potentially harming the U.S. economy and increasing "stagflation" risks[2] - The tariffs are likely to raise inflation expectations, which may restrict the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates in the short term[2] - The tariff impacts could lead to increased uncertainty in global trade and capital markets, posing downward risks to global sovereign credit levels[2] Sovereign Credit Rating Actions - Credit rating downgrades occurred for France, Germany, and Thailand due to political instability and economic challenges, with France's rating adjusted from AAg to AA-g[3][5] - Positive adjustments were made for Turkey, Serbia, Egypt, and Sri Lanka, reflecting improved economic conditions and investor confidence, with Turkey's rating upgraded from BB-g to BBg[3][5] - Belgium's credit outlook was revised to negative due to slowing economic growth and rising fiscal deficits, while the ratings for the UAE and the UK were maintained[3][5] Specific Country Insights - France faces increasing fiscal deficits and debt issues due to political discord, which could elevate borrowing costs[8] - Germany's economic outlook is dimmed by a slight recession influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, alongside declining political stability affecting policy effectiveness[12] - Egypt's credit rating was upgraded due to significant foreign investment inflows and improved fiscal liquidity, stemming from the Ras El-Hekma agreement and IMF loans[19][20]