新格局下的中国经济：韧性与潜力

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2%[5] - Industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.3% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025[5] - The service production index rose by 5.9% year-on-year during the same period[5] Consumption Trends - Social retail sales increased by 5.0% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with goods retail sales up by 5.1% and service retail sales up by 5.2%[6] - The "old-for-new" policy drove sales of five major categories to 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers[6] - Retail sales of sports and entertainment products surged by 28.3% year-on-year in May 2025[6] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with manufacturing investment increasing by 8.5%[9] - Investment in consumer goods manufacturing rose by 13.2%, while infrastructure investment saw a decline, with a year-on-year drop of 10.4% in real estate development investment[9][27] Export Performance - Total goods imports and exports increased by 2.5% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with exports rising by 7.2%[10] - The share of exports to the U.S. decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 11.9% in May 2025, while exports to ASEAN increased from 12.8% to 17.8%[10] Policy Environment - The fiscal deficit for 2025 is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of 4%, marking the highest level in recent years[14] - The central government’s deficit is projected at 4.86 trillion yuan, accounting for 85.9% of the total deficit, also a record high[15] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has shifted to "moderately loose," with measures including a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reductions[19] - Social financing increased by 8.7% year-on-year as of May 2025, with M2 growth at 7.9%[19] Future Economic Trends - GDP growth is expected to reach 5.0% for the full year 2025, with Q2 growth projected at 5.3% and subsequent quarters at 4.8% and 4.6% respectively[21] - Consumer spending is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of 5.1% for the year, driven by structural changes in consumption patterns[22] Investment Outlook - Manufacturing investment is projected to grow by 7.9% for the year, supported by government policies and technological advancements[23] - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by 6.7% for the year, bolstered by active fiscal policies and project approvals[28] Export Resilience - Exports are forecasted to grow by 1.2% for the year, supported by diversification in trade partners and product structures[30]