特朗普称8月1日加征关税不会延期，且威胁对铜加税

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, leading to increased policy uncertainty and market volatility [14][15] - Various commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, such as the impact of tariff threats on palm oil exports, the production pressure on Ferrexpo's iron ore, and the adjustment of the expected price of polysilicon [2][30][42] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US June 1 - year inflation expectation was 3.02%, lower than the expected 3.13% and the previous value of 3.20%. Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper, and the equal - tariff is postponed to August 1. Gold lacks the impetus to break through and rise, and there is a risk of decline in the short term [9][10][11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - Trump will impose a 50% tariff on copper, threatens to impose sanctions on Russia, and the tariff deadline on August 1 will not be postponed. Market risk appetite is affected, and the dollar is expected to strengthen in the short term [12][13][16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - National leaders inspected Shanxi, and 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative. The A - share market sentiment is high, and it is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly [17][18][19] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US June one - year inflation expectation dropped to a five - month low. Trump threatens to impose a 50% copper tariff, and tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are expected. The industry tariff pressure increases, and there is a risk of US stock market correction [20][21][23] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 690 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 620 billion yuan. Treasury bond futures are expected to rise marginally from July to August, and long positions can be held and bought on dips [24][25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Vietnam's textile and clothing exports in June increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was 7.3%, and the US cotton growth progress was slightly slow but the excellent rate was higher. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term [26][27][29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Due to US tariff threats, Indonesia's palm oil exports to the US are expected to decline. Palm oil prices rose significantly yesterday, and it is recommended to buy on dips after a callback [30][31] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises in production areas are in a loss state, and the starch inventory cycle changes rapidly with high uncertainty [32] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The import corn auction on July 8 cooled down, and it is recommended to enter short positions on new crops lightly in advance [33][34] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price difference between imported and domestic steam coal exists. The daily consumption of steam coal is high in the short term, and the price is expected to remain stable in July [35] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales of excavators in June increased year - on - year, and 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies in the spot market [36][38][39] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Ferrexpo's iron ore production in the second quarter was under pressure. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the valuation repair of coking coal [40] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount. The lead price center may gradually rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the external reverse arbitrage opportunity [41] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The expected price of polysilicon was significantly increased, but there are still problems in reality. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a discount, and the zinc market is expected to accumulate inventory from July to August. It is recommended to short on rallies, arrange medium - term positive arbitrage, and maintain the medium - term positive arbitrage idea externally [44] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The output of organic silicon increased. The industrial silicon price may face a downward risk, and it is recommended to short on rallies [45][46][47] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel raw materials began to weaken, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies [48][49] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium carbonate project's environmental impact assessment was accepted. It is recommended to buy on dips and arrange positive arbitrage [50][51] 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - EIA lowered the forecast of US crude oil production growth this year, and API crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [52][53][54] 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rose slightly, and it is expected to adjust in the short term and the supply gap will widen in the medium term [54][55] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices fluctuated, and the basis declined. It is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of PX maintenance on the supply - demand gap in the medium term [56][57] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices were lowered, and it is recommended to increase the processing fee of bottle chips on dips [58][59][60] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rebounded, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [60][61][62] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp fluctuated, and it is expected to fluctuate in the market [62] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device is expected to be put into production. The pure benzene futures were listed, and the styrene - pure benzene spread narrowed. There may be a long - term allocation opportunity for pure benzene [63][64][66] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - PVC prices fluctuated slightly, and the market is expected to have limited upside [67] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The construction of national zero - carbon parks was launched, and CEA prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [68][69] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices were weak and fluctuating, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [70] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market were stable. It is recommended to use the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [71][73]