信用策略系列：解析“信用债ETF成分券策略”

Group 1 - Since May, the credit market has shown an independent trend, with the bond market experiencing fluctuations and overall interest rates remaining stable. The rapid growth of credit bond ETFs has catalyzed a buying spree, particularly for index constituent bonds and related securities [1][13][9] - The trading activity of constituent bonds has significantly increased, with their turnover rate notably higher than that of non-constituent bonds. The anticipated growth of credit bond ETFs has further accelerated the demand for constituent bonds, especially those related to the Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF [2][17][19] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the launch of the Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF is expected to continue driving growth in the scale of constituent bonds, with potential further compression in valuations. The estimated compression space for high-grade bonds rated AAA is projected to be between 3-10 basis points [3][29][31] - In the context of crowded trading in constituent bonds, there may be opportunities to select non-constituent bonds from the same issuers, which currently have liquidity premium space and may follow suit in valuation compression [3][44][31] Group 3 - The overall view on other credit varieties remains consistent with previous reports, indicating that the current spread of short-term credit has reached extreme compression. Given the central bank's loose monetary policy, it is expected to follow the interest rate trend for a while, serving as a base allocation [4][51][52] - For medium to long-term risks, the situation appears manageable, with a preference for long-duration bonds that may experience spread compression, alongside selecting medium to long-term issuers with riding value [4][51][52]