Group 1: Convertible Bond Market Outlook - The convertible bond market showed strong performance in June, with both equal-weighted and weighted indices reaching new highs for 2025, yielding returns of 10% and 7% respectively [11][11] - The revaluation of bank stocks, combined with strong conversion of bank convertible bonds, is expected to sustain the strength of bank convertible bonds due to their increasing scarcity [11] - Small-cap convertible bonds have surged due to favorable industry trends and ample liquidity, supported by the performance of small-cap stocks and the absence of concerns over rating risks [11][11] - A "barbell strategy" combining bank convertible bonds, small-cap growth convertible bonds, and low-priced, low-volatility convertible bonds remains effective [11] Group 2: Recommendations for July - Suggested convertible bonds to focus on in July include: Ziyin Convertible Bond, Qingnong Convertible Bond, Pudong Development Convertible Bond, Green Movement Convertible Bond, Tian 23 Convertible Bond, Aowei Convertible Bond, Daotong Convertible Bond, Liyang Convertible Bond, Chao Sheng Convertible Bond, and Huazheng Convertible Bond [12][11] Group 3: Dollar Weakness and De-dollarization - Recent dollar weakness is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, with the dollar index dropping below 97, marking a 4.7% depreciation since mid-May [13][14] - The narrative of "de-dollarization" should not be conflated with cyclical dollar weakness; the impact of fundamental trends on the dollar's value may be limited [14][15] - The potential for a dollar rebound exists due to resilient employment and inflation pressures, which could delay interest rate cuts and support the dollar index [15][16] Group 4: Hong Kong Stock Market and Foreign Investment - The Hong Kong stock market has seen increased attention, with foreign capital flowing in, particularly through cornerstone investors in IPOs [21] - The proportion of foreign cornerstone investors in Hong Kong IPOs has risen significantly, indicating a strong demand for Chinese assets [21] - A-H premium has narrowed, with some stocks showing valuation premiums in Hong Kong, reflecting ongoing foreign interest in core Chinese assets [21] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a 3.6% increase recently, driven by supportive policies for innovative drugs and the initiation of negotiations for the medical insurance directory [31] - Companies in the pharmaceutical sector are expected to report significant profit growth, with several companies projecting over 100% growth in net profit for Q2 2025 [24][32]
申万宏源研究晨会报告-20250709
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-09 00:42