研究所晨会观点精萃-20250709

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US President's tariff plans increase short - term tariff risks, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and a decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's June PMI data continues to rise, economic growth accelerates, and policies boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overall Situation: Overseas tariff risks increase, the US dollar index and US bond yields rebound, and global risk appetite cools. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, policies boost risk appetite, and the domestic market sentiment warms up. Asset - wise, stocks are short - term bullish, bonds are high - level volatile, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. - Stock Index: Driven by sectors like photovoltaic equipment, semiconductor components, and energy metals, the domestic stock market rises. The short - term macro - upward drive weakens, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - Precious Metals: They oscillate downward. The extension of Trump's tariff deadline, a strong US dollar, and changes in employment data affect the market. The "Big Beautiful Act" supports gold in the long - term, and tariff disturbances are the main short - term factor. Gold volatility is expected to rise [3]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continue to oscillate. Demand is weak, supply - side production shows some changes, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it will remain range - bound [4]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices rebound slightly. The implementation of production - restriction policies affects supply, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron production [5]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: Spot prices fall slightly, and futures prices rebound. Demand is okay, but production may decline. The market is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [6]. Chemicals and Building Materials - Soda Ash: The main contract oscillates strongly. Supply decreases due to device maintenance, demand is at a low level, and profits decline. In the long - term, it should be short - allocated [7]. - Glass: The main contract price oscillates. Supply may decrease due to policy expectations, demand is weak, and profits are at a low level. Supply - side reduction expectations may support prices [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Trump's consideration of a 50% copper tariff affects prices. China's refined copper production increases, and inventory is in a good state [10]. - Aluminum: The price rises due to policy and market atmosphere. Fundamentals weaken, but short - term sharp decline needs macro - support [10]. - Aluminum Alloy: It is in the off - season, with weak demand. Tight scrap aluminum supply supports prices, and the price is expected to be oscillatingly strong with limited upside [10]. - Tin: Supply recovers, and demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and upside is restricted in the medium - term [11]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price rises slightly. Supply has a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, and cost supports the price. It is expected to be oscillatingly strong [12]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is affected by policies and is expected to be oscillatingly strong. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the north [12]. - Polysilicon: Multiple contracts hit the daily limit due to anti - involution policies. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and trading margins and price limits are adjusted [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Prices rise due to the Red Sea attack and technical factors. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but inventory increases, and prices will be in a consolidation state [15]. - Asphalt: The price rises slightly following crude oil. Shipping volume decreases, and attention should be paid to the destocking situation in the peak season [15]. - PX: The strong trend weakens, and the PXN spread narrows. PTA's production recovery will support PX, and its weakening may be slower than downstream [15]. - PTA: The basis weakens, and trading volume recovers. The spot's impact on the futures is limited, and it will wait for cost support changes [16]. - Ethylene Glycol: Port inventory accumulates, supply increases, and there may be a slight oversupply in August. Prices will remain low and oscillating [16]. - Short - fiber: The price moves in a range following crude oil. Terminal orders are average, inventory is high, and it will follow the polyester sector with weak oscillations [16]. - Methanol: Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals support the spot, but international supply recovery and downstream maintenance plans change the supply - demand outlook. It rebounds slightly with limited upside [16]. - PP: Supply pressure eases, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to fall further [17]. - LLDPE: Production is high, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure with room for cost - profit compression [17]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The price falls slightly. The planting area is determined, and weather in the growing season is crucial. Trade disputes may affect export demand [18]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: Oil mills have high operating rates, and soybean meal supply is loose. Rapeseed meal focuses on inventory digestion and trade policies [18]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: Rapeseed oil inventory decreases slightly, and soybean oil supply is stable with weak consumption. They are affected by palm oil [19]. - Palm Oil: The price rises, and attention is paid to the BMD market and supply - demand reports. Export data is good, but production and oil prices limit the upside [19]. - Corn: Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increase supply, and futures prices are expected to weaken. However, the new - season opening price may rise [20]. - Pigs: Large - scale enterprises are reluctant to increase supply. Supply may decrease in July, and there is a risk of concentrated second - fattening supply in July - August, limiting price increases [21].