五矿期货早报有色金属-20250709

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US copper tariff policy has increased market volatility, and there are still uncertainties in current policies, with risks of fluctuations remaining. In July, China's refined copper production is expected to remain high, downstream demand is weak in the off - season, but increased exports may keep inventories stable. Overseas hidden inventories may become more visible [1]. - The aluminum price oscillated and rebounded. Domestically, the commodity atmosphere is strong, but the sustainability of the bullish sentiment is questionable. Overseas trade situations are uncertain. Aluminum ingot inventories are low, but supply may increase in July, which will resist the upward movement of aluminum prices [3]. - The lead price is generally strong, but the increase in Shanghai lead is expected to be limited due to weak domestic consumption [5]. - The zinc price is under pressure as the zinc ore supply is high, the TC is rising, the expected increase in zinc ingot production is high, and the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure is downward [7]. - The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. The domestic tin price is expected to oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price between 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton [8][9]. - The nickel price is weak. The current main contradiction lies in the ferro - nickel production line. The stainless - steel demand is weak, causing the ferro - nickel price to fall, and the nickel price is over - valued compared to ferro - nickel. It is recommended to short at high prices [10]. - The lithium carbonate price has a rebound trend, but the supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. If there is no macro - level bullish factor, the upward space of the lithium price is limited [12]. - The alumina futures price is still anchored by cost, and the ore price is the core contradiction. It is recommended to short at high prices [15]. - The stainless - steel market has a short - term oversupply situation, and the weak operation of the spot market is expected to continue [17]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum alloy are both weak in the off - season. The price is mainly affected by the aluminum price and faces resistance to rise [19]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 1.22% to $9,665/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 80,030 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 5,100 tons to 102,500 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.25 tons to 1.9 tons [1]. - Market: The domestic copper spot import loss was about 1,100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference slightly widened to 1,640 yuan/ton [1]. - Outlook: The Shanghai copper main contract is expected to operate between 77,000 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M between 9,400 - 10,000 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 0.53% to $2,577/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,540 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The LME aluminum inventory increased by 13,200 tons to 384,350 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 tons to 4.7 tons [3]. - Market: The three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.4 tons, and the spot in Guangdong shifted to a discount to the futures [3]. - Outlook: The Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to operate between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M between 2,520 - 2,620 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.26% to 17,168 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,046.5/ton [5]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 4.77 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 26 tons [5]. - Market: The refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton, and the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 5.48 tons [5]. - Outlook: The lead price is generally strong, but the increase in Shanghai lead is limited [5]. Zinc - Price: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.29% to 21,985 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2,691.5/ton [7]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.79 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.06 tons [7]. - Market: The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.91 tons, and the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure declined [7]. - Outlook: The zinc price is under pressure [7]. Tin - Price: On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 265,480 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [8]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange registered tin warehouse receipts decreased by 146 tons to 6,742 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 1,985 tons [8]. - Market: The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The procurement willingness is weak [8]. - Outlook: The domestic tin price is expected to oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price between 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton [9]. Nickel - Price: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 119,650 yuan/ton, down 0.88%, and the LME main contract closed at $15,015/ton, down 0.76% [10]. - Market: The ferro - nickel price has fallen, and the ore price has weakened. The nickel price is over - valued compared to ferro - nickel [10]. - Outlook: It is recommended to short at high prices, with the Shanghai nickel main contract expected to operate between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14,500 - 16,000 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index closed at 62,301 yuan, up 0.36%, and the LC2509 contract closed at 63,880 yuan, up 0.35% [12]. - Market: The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, and the upward space of the price is limited without macro - level bullish factors [12]. - Outlook: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2509 contract is expected to operate between 61,900 - 65,000 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - Price: On July 8, 2025, the alumina index rose 2.05% to 3,090 yuan/ton [14]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts were 1.86 tons, unchanged [14]. - Market: The spot prices in most regions rose, the import window was closed, and the aluminum ore price was stable [14][15]. - Outlook: It is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 expected to operate between 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,700 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [17]. - Inventory: The futures inventory was 111,410 tons, down 123 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 115.68 tons, up 0.20% [17]. - Market: The spot market trading improved slightly, but the overall atmosphere was still dull. The supply - demand imbalance persists [17]. - Outlook: The weak operation of the spot market is expected to continue [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract closed down 0.51% to 19,850 yuan/ton [19]. - Inventory: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased by about 0.15 tons to 2.4 tons [19]. - Market: The spot market trading was divided, and the price was mainly affected by the aluminum price [19]. - Outlook: The price faces resistance to rise [19].