Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements in each sector, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk warnings. The overall market is influenced by factors such as policies, international trade, and seasonal patterns, with different sectors showing distinct characteristics and outlooks [2][3][5]. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance Index Futures - Macro News: The US Treasury Secretary plans to talk with China in the coming weeks to promote consultations on Sino - US trade. Northern Rare Earth is optimistic about future rare earth prices. In June, the retail sales of national passenger cars reached 2.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.6%. There is no exact news about silicon material storage from Tongwei Co., Ltd [2]. - Basis Ratio: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided. It is recommended to buy IH or IF index futures on dips and also consider IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy: The economic data shows structural differentiation affected by tariffs. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards liquidity. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - Market Quotes: Shanghai gold and COMEX gold declined, while COMEX silver rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.42%, and the US dollar index is 97.55 [7]. - Market Outlook: Weak US inflation and economic data enhance the expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Quotes: LME copper declined, and Shanghai copper closed at 80,030 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. There are uncertainties in US copper tariff policies [10]. - Price Forecast: Shanghai copper is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and LME copper between 9,400 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - Market Quotes: Aluminum prices rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.53%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,540 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly [12]. - Outlook: The domestic commodity atmosphere is strong, but the sustainability of the long - position sentiment is uncertain. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and consolidate, with Shanghai aluminum trading between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton and LME aluminum between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [12]. Zinc - Market Quotes: Shanghai zinc index declined. Zinc ore supply is high, and zinc ingot inventory is accumulating. Zinc prices are under pressure [13]. Lead - Market Quotes: Shanghai lead index declined slightly. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead batteries has stabilized. Lead prices are expected to be relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead may be limited [14]. Nickel - Market Quotes: Nickel prices were weak. The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the stainless - steel demand and the cost of nickel iron. It is recommended to short nickel on rallies, with Shanghai nickel trading between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel between 14,500 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [15]. Tin - Market Quotes: Tin prices rebounded slightly. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that domestic tin prices will oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin prices between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Quotes: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The upward space of lithium prices is limited without macro - level positive factors. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 61,900 - 65,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - Market Quotes: The alumina index rose. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the domestic main contract AO2509 trading between 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - Market Quotes: The stainless - steel main contract rose slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied in the short term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Quotes: The AD2511 contract declined. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is mainly affected by aluminum prices. The price has strong resistance above [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Quotes: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a weak and oscillating trend. The policy of "anti - involution and capacity reduction" has an impact on the market, but the specific implementation is uncertain. Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel will suppress exports [23][24]. - Outlook: The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand, and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - Market Quotes: The main contract of iron ore rose. The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand also declined. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price of glass was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short - selling positions should be avoided [27]. - Soda Ash: The spot price of soda ash rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Quotes: Manganese silicon closed slightly higher, and ferrosilicon closed slightly lower. The fundamentals of the two products are weak, but the market is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][30]. Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: Industrial silicon futures rose. The supply of industrial silicon is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, and hedging positions can be operated when there is a profit [32][33]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - Market Quotes: NR and RU rebounded. The market has priced in the small - scale storage expectation. The bullish and bearish views are different. The tire开工 rate is neutral, and the inventory is increasing [35][36][37]. - Strategy: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, a neutral view in the short term, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [38]. Crude Oil - Market Quotes: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all rose. There is uncertainty in geopolitical risks, and the market is in a state of tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. Methanol - Market Quotes: The 09 contract of methanol declined. The upstream maintenance increased, and the demand decreased. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - Market Quotes: The 09 contract of urea rose. The short - term supply decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The price has support below and is recommended to be short - term long on dips [42]. Styrene - Market Quotes: The spot price of styrene was stable, and the futures price declined. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly [43][44]. PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC09 contract rose slightly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to be under pressure [45][46]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG09 contract declined. The supply and demand are both weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [47]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA09 contract was stable. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. p - Xylene - Market Quotes: The PX09 contract rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. In the third quarter, it is expected to de - stock. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49][50]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Quotes: The futures price of PE declined. Affected by the OPEC+ production increase, the cost decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Quotes: The futures price of PP declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in July [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Quotes: The domestic pig price was slightly stronger. The supply is seasonally decreasing, and the second - fattening space is still available. The short - term long - position may have space, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [54]. Eggs - Market Quotes: The price of eggs mostly declined. The supply is stable, and the demand is cautious. The short - term price is expected to be stable, and the mid - term price may be affected by supply and premium [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Quotes: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal prices also decreased. The supply of soybeans and protein is in excess. It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and wait for new driving factors [56][57]. Oils and Fats - Market Quotes: Malaysian palm oil exports increased, and domestic palm oil prices strengthened. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but there are also factors suppressing the upward space. The market is expected to oscillate [58][59][60]. Sugar - Market Quotes: Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. Brazil's sugar exports increased in June, and the domestic import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to continue to decline [61]. Cotton - Market Quotes: Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs". The basis between futures and spot is strengthening, and the market expects the issuance of import quotas, which is a potential negative factor. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [62].
五矿期货文字早评-20250709
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-09 01:11