Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment, suggesting investors to wait and see for the time being [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 8, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price, and in the medium term, the fundamental contradictions in the live pig market are not significant. The LH2509 contract is undergoing oscillatory adjustment [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 350 lots today, with a position of approximately 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,300 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,230 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,275 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of breeding sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, but the increase will be limited. The overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From historical and current fundamental perspectives, the spread between fat and standard pigs may undergo oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Market bearish and bullish logics: Bears believe that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited in the second and third quarters. Bulls believe that there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, the spot price is resilient, and although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the consumption peak season is approaching [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current relationship between weight reduction and stable pig prices in the spot market indicates that demand also supports pig prices, and it is difficult for pig prices to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the short - term rise and fall of pig prices are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Data - On July 8, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.89 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.13% compared to the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 15.15 yuan/kg and 14.41 yuan/kg respectively, with Henan increasing by 0.08 yuan/kg or 0.53% and Sichuan remaining unchanged [6]. - Among the futures contracts, the 09 contract increased by 30 yuan/ton or 0.21%, while other contracts such as 01, 03, 05, 07, and 11 contracts showed varying degrees of decline or remained unchanged [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 50 yuan/ton or 6.06% to 875 yuan/ton [6].
生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250709
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )·2025-07-09 01:11