宝城期货煤焦早报-20250709

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view for both coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) is to adopt an oscillating approach. Coking coal futures are expected to oscillate due to optimistic market sentiment, while coke futures are likely to have an interval oscillation due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - Price and Supply - Demand Data: The latest quoted price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 940.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.08%. As of the week ending July 4, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 73.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 million tons but 2.7 million tons lower than the same period last year. The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 111.81 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 million tons [5]. - Market Outlook: The fundamental situation of coking coal has not improved significantly, and the supply in the production area has increased in the short term. The upward movement of futures is mainly driven by news. With the upcoming Politburo meeting in July, the market's long - short game is intensifying. It is expected that the main coking coal contract will maintain an oscillating trend [5]. Coke (J) - Price Data: The latest quoted price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1220 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1210 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.42% [6]. - Market Outlook: The market logic has shifted from fundamental game to expected game. The policy mentioned in the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission may have an impact on coking coal and coke. However, since the coking industry has completed capacity upgrading in recent years, the direct impact on coke may be relatively limited. With a combination of strong expectations and weak realities, coke futures are adjusting in a low - level oscillation. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating approach and pay attention to the recovery of coking coal production and policy dynamics [6].