宝城期货国债期货早报-20250709

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is to continue the range - bound consolidation in the short - term, with a higher possibility of an upward trend in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term view is that TL2509 will be range - bound, and the intraday view is range - bound to the downside, while the medium - term view is range - bound. The main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) have an intraday view of range - bound to the downside and a medium - term view of range - bound [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term view is range - bound, the medium - term view is range - bound, the intraday view is range - bound to the downside, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures slightly pulled back. Recently, the central bank has net withdrawn funds in the open market, and the risk appetite in the stock market has recovered, leading to a range - bound adjustment of Treasury bond futures. However, considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the downside space of Treasury bond futures is limited. Currently, domestic inflation is weak, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors. A relatively loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations, so the possibility of an upward trend in Treasury bond futures in the medium - to - long - term is high [5].