国新国证期货早报-20250709

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - On July 8, 2025, A - share major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3500 points, and trading volume increased [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, production changes, and international market conditions [5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 8, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to 3497.48, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46% to 10588.39, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.39% to 2181.08. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1453.9 billion yuan, an increase of 245.3 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3998.45 on July 8, up 33.28 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 8, the coke weighted index closed at 1431.5, up 2.8, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 856.9 yuan, up 7.1 [3][4]. - Coke: Due to rising coking coal prices, some coking plants cut production. Downstream steel mills maintained stable profits but only made necessary purchases. A proposed price increase for coke faced resistance from steel mills [5]. - Coking coal: Some previously shut - down mines resumed production. Mongolian coal imports may increase after the holiday. Short - term supply was tight, but import profits for some coal types improved [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors like short - term price increases and increased Brazilian exports in June, US sugar prices adjusted slightly lower on Monday. Zhengzhou sugar futures also showed a downward trend on Tuesday [5]. Rubber - Trump's tariff measures led to a rebound in Shanghai rubber prices on Tuesday, but weak fundamentals limited the rebound space [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 8, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to good crop weather in the US. In the domestic market, sufficient soybean supply and high oil - mill operating rates led to high soybean meal production and inventory pressure [6][8]. Live Pigs - On July 8, the LH2509 contract closed at 14275 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The supply of live pigs increased, while terminal demand was weak, and there was medium - to - long - term supply pressure [8]. Palm Oil - On July 8, palm oil prices broke through a three - month consolidation range, with the domestic contract closing at 8644, up 2.1%. The BMD Malaysian palm oil contract also rose [9]. Shanghai Copper - The outcome of the July 9 tariff negotiation was crucial. High production and weak demand in China, along with uncertainties in the macro - economy, put pressure on copper prices [9]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13730 yuan/ton, and cotton inventory decreased by 63 lots [10]. Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 785 on July 8, with a focus on the 790 - 800 pressure range. Log inventory increased slightly, and demand was weak [10]. Steel - On July 8, the rb2510 contract closed at 3063 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. Steel production might decrease slightly, and prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [10]. Alumina - On July 8, the ao2509 contract closed at 3110 yuan/ton. Imported ore prices might rise, supporting production costs. The supply surplus situation continued [11][12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 8, the al2508 contract closed at 20525 yuan/ton. The market was weak, with sufficient supply and general demand [12].