山金期货黑色板块日报-20250709

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price increase of black - series commodities may not be sustainable as the main goal of the recent Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is anti - involution in downstream manufacturing sectors rather than supply - side reform in the upstream of black and building materials industries. The current real estate market is still bottoming out, and the black - series market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations [2]. - For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore output is expected to decline further. Although it may maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend in the short term, it is in a long - term downward cycle [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Analysis: The market misinterpreted the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a signal for a new round of supply - side reform in the black - series industry. The economic data in May was slightly below expectations, and the real estate market is still in the bottoming process. The supply - demand situation shows weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of hot weather, demand will weaken further and inventory is expected to rise slightly. Technically, there is significant resistance above the futures price [2]. - Operation Suggestions: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when the price rises. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then short at high prices [3]. - Data Highlights: The closing price of the threaded bar main contract is 3063 yuan/ton, up 2.00% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3191 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from last week. The national building materials steel mill threaded bar output is 221.08 tons, up 1.49% from last week; the hot - rolled coil output is 328.14 tons, up 0.28% from last week [3]. II. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but iron ore output is expected to decline further due to the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, which exerts pressure on the futures price. In the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend, but there is significant resistance above [6]. - Operation Suggestions: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when the price rises. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then short at high prices [6]. - Data Highlights: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 733 yuan/dry ton, up 3.46% from last week. Australian iron ore shipments are 1585.2 tons, down 8.40% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 578.9 tons, down 25.47% from last week [6]. III. Industry News - On July 8, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14403.69 tons, a decrease of 62.08 tons from last Monday. The inventory in different regions showed different trends [8]. - From June 30 to July 6, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1269.2 tons, an increase of 30.8 tons from the previous period [8]. - A new round of staggered production has started for Shandong cement enterprises, which will help balance supply and demand in the industry [8]. - From July 7 to July 13, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 18 ports decreased by 31% week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased by 26% week - on - week [8].