安粮期货：股指

Group 1: Macro - The domestic policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures. The upcoming July Politburo meeting is expected to introduce growth - stabilizing policies. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but leaves long - term uncertainty for trade - dependent sectors [2] - The four major stock index futures contracts closed up, with IM performing the strongest. The market sentiment is warm, but the trading volume shrank by 89.1 billion yuan, showing cautious chasing sentiment. Mid - term breakthrough needs fundamental support [2] - For unilateral strategies, focus on long opportunities in small and medium - cap indexes, beware of basis fluctuations. For arbitrage strategies, there may be IM/IC reverse arbitrage opportunities due to the convergence of deep discounts in far - month contracts [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The low dollar index supports oil prices, but the US non - farm data reduces the possibility of a July interest rate cut and the OPEC+ July meeting has expectations of accelerated production increase, so oil prices will fluctuate in the short term [3] - Trump's tweet and potential OPEC+ production increase put oil prices in a relatively weak position, but the upcoming summer peak season provides some support. Market expectations for summer demand are pessimistic [3] - Pay attention to the support level of around $65 per barrel for WTI [3] Group 3: Gold - The June non - farm data basically rules out a July interest rate cut. Trump's tariff policy and central bank gold - buying behavior support gold prices in the long term [4] - In the short term, trade risks and high - interest rate prospects weaken gold's appeal, but in the long term, the "Big and Beautiful Act" and tariff uncertainties enhance its hedging value [5] - Focus on the battle around the $3350 per ounce multi - empty dividing line, with support around $3300 per ounce. Pay attention to the Fed's June meeting minutes [5] Group 4: Silver - On July 8, Asian session, spot silver opened at $36.769 per ounce and maintained a narrow - range oscillation [6] - The US economic recovery is weak, tariff policies increase uncertainty, but Indian physical investment and industrial demand support silver prices. The gold - silver ratio has reached a new low [6] - In the short term, pay attention to the support in the range of $36.60 - $36.45 per ounce. Policy games before August 1 may boost silver prices [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4805 yuan/ton. Cost support is weak, and the supply pressure has increased significantly. Demand is sluggish with a negative outlook [7] - It will be in a short - term weak consolidation. Pay attention to raw material disturbances and downstream production cuts [7] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4347 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance with inventory pressure. It will oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - Be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports. Aggressive investors can short on rallies [8] PVC - The spot price in East China has decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventory has increased [9][10] - The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10] PP - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand has weakened slightly, and inventory has decreased [11] - The fundamentals have not improved, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [12] Plastic - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has changed slightly, and inventory has decreased [13] - The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [13] Soda Ash - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has decreased due to more maintenance, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14] - It is recommended to adopt a bottom - range oscillation strategy in the short term [14] Glass - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has increased, inventory has decreased slightly, and demand is weak [15] - It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy in the short term [15] Rubber - The spot prices of different types of rubber are provided. New rubber supply has increased, and raw material prices have declined. Demand from the tire industry is weak [16] - It will oscillate with the market, and the rebound height may be limited. Pay attention to downstream tire开工 rates [16] Methanol - The spot prices in different regions remain unchanged. The futures price has decreased, port inventory has increased, supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand is weak [17] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory accumulation and Iranian plant resumption [17] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is in a new - old grain transition period. Demand is weak [18][19] - The futures price will test the support level of around 2300 yuan/ton in the short term [19] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a supply - demand weak pattern [20] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short - term range. Pay attention to the support around 8000 yuan/ton [20] Cotton - The spot prices are provided. The US production forecast has been revised down, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose. The current supply is tightening, but demand is weak [21] - The cotton price will oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to market speculation [21] Pig - The spot price has decreased. Supply has increased as farmers are more willing to sell, and demand is weak due to high temperatures and lack of holidays [22] - The 2509 contract has high uncertainty. Pay attention to pig slaughtering [22] Egg - The spot price has decreased. Supply is sufficient as the number of laying hens increases, and demand is weak. The price is under pressure [23] - The price will oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to farmers' culling intentions and it is recommended to wait and see [23] Soybean Meal - The spot prices in different regions are provided. International factors are tariffs and weather, and domestic supply pressure is high while demand is strong [24] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [24] Soybean Oil - The spot prices in different regions are provided. Internationally, pay attention to US soybean growing weather and MPOB report. Domestically, supply pressure is high and demand is in the off - season [25] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [25] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The spot price has decreased. Trump's tariff threat on copper has caused fluctuations in US copper. Domestic policies support the market, but raw material issues and inventory changes complicate the market [26] - The copper price has fallen from above 80,000 yuan. Consider removing defenses on rallies [26] Shanghai Aluminum - The spot price has decreased. The high probability of a Fed rate hike in July and tariffs suppress prices. Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is starting to accumulate [27] - Aggressive investors can conduct range operations, and conservative investors should wait and see [27] Alumina - The spot price is basically stable. Trade policy uncertainty increases. Supply is affected by bauxite shortages, demand is stable but the procurement rhythm has slowed, and inventory costs have decreased [28][29] - The over - supply expectation remains, and it may be stimulated by news in the short term [29] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price remains unchanged. Cost provides support, supply is facing over - capacity, demand will enter the off - season, and inventory is increasing [30] - The 2511 contract will maintain a range oscillation [30] Lithium Carbonate - The spot prices remain unchanged. Cost support has strengthened, supply is stable at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [31] - Aggressive investors can try long positions near the moving average, and conservative investors should wait and see [31] Industrial Silicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is expected to remain high, and demand varies in different sectors. It will oscillate strongly in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [32] - Adopt a range operation strategy and wait for key support and pressure levels [32] Polysilicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is structurally differentiated, demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [33][34] - Pay attention to the 40,000 - yuan pressure level. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking [34] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The spot price remains unchanged. The cost is supported, supply pressure exists, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory has decreased slightly [35] - It will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [35] Rebar - The spot price remains unchanged. Macro sentiment has improved, cost support has strengthened, demand has increased slightly in the off - season, inventory is low, and supply is expected to shrink [36] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [36] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price has decreased. Similar to rebar, macro factors drive the market, cost support is strong, demand has increased slightly, and supply is expected to shrink [37] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [37] Iron Ore - The spot prices are provided. Import volume has increased slightly, demand is facing short - term contraction due to environmental policies, port inventory has decreased slightly, and the market has large differences [38] - The main contract will oscillate in a range in the short term, and investors should be cautious [38] Coal - The spot price of coke has increased. For coking coal, production has increased, inventory has decreased in some areas, and prices have rebounded slightly. For coke, production losses have increased, demand has decreased slightly, and inventory has decreased [39][40] - Coking coal will remain weakly stable, and the coke main contract may oscillate strongly. Pay attention to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [40]